Texas Draw Hunts

[justletmein]

I know this math isn't perfect, but is this generally how you can look at odds with preference points?

Hunts availible - 10
Number of applicants - 1500
Preference points - 8

10/1500 = .0067

.0067 x 8 = .053

So you basically have a 5.3% chance of drawing said hunt.

Its kinda sad that most categories I have 8-11 points and it's going to take another 10 years before I start having a realistic shot of drawing. And thats assuming point creep doesn't wreck the whole system.

Everybody else has points too so you're way way less than that percentage. In fact if you have less than average points your odds probably go down.

[jbw899]

I know this math isn't perfect, but is this generally how you can look at odds with preference points?

Hunts availible - 10
Number of applicants - 1500
Preference points - 8

10/1500 = .0067

.0067 x 8 = .053

So you basically have a 5.3% chance of drawing said hunt.

Its kinda sad that most categories I have 8-11 points and it's going to take another 10 years before I start having a realistic shot of drawing. And thats assuming point creep doesn't wreck the whole system.

You have a chance in every hunt but it is impossible to calculate the odds because they cube points in each category. If you have 8 points, you’re entered 64 times. That makes a huge difference but of course everyone else has their points cubed also.

[Patton]

I know this math isn't perfect, but is this generally how you can look at odds with preference points?

Hunts availible - 10
Number of applicants - 1500
Preference points - 8

10/1500 = .0067

.0067 x 8 = .053

So you basically have a 5.3% chance of drawing said hunt.

Its kinda sad that most categories I have 8-11 points and it's going to take another 10 years before I start having a realistic shot of drawing. And thats assuming point creep doesn't wreck the whole system.

Only way to get exact odds would be if TPWD released the number of applicants at each point level. And you’d also have to know if they are applying or just sitting on the sideline/forgot to apply one year (somebody could have 8pts but not be applied in a draw).

[bigdaddy590]

You have a chance in every hunt but it is impossible to calculate the odds because they cube points in each category. If you have 8 points, you’re entered 64 times. That makes a huge difference but of course everyone else has their points cubed also.

8^3 = 512


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[jbw899]

8^3 = 512


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Yep, my bad, guess it would help if I actually cubed it

[EastTx]

0-21

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[EastTx]

Drew epostcard waterfowl at Richland creek Any info?

No birds, not worth the trip.[emoji6]

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[OleTomTalker]

No birds, not worth the trip.[emoji6]

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Dadgummit! Already accepted it too. Oh well guess will just have to suck it up and try.

[solocam_aggie]

No go with 11 mule deer points. I didnt even check my emails yesterday knowing my odds are so slim. I guess I'll take my one management hunt and be happy I at least drew a hunt.

[jnd1959]

Dadgummit! Already accepted it too. Oh well guess will just have to suck it up and try.

I didn't draw again. I blame you...


Good luck. Was out there at the end of Sept looking around. They were starting to flood some areas. Surprised they even drew this year with the draught. I think that place will be loaded if we don't get any rain.

[C-dubyah]

I didn't draw again. I blame you...


Good luck. Was out there at the end of Sept looking around. They were starting to flood some areas. Surprised they even drew this year with the draught. I think that place will be loaded if we don't get any rain.

It was loaded last year when I hunted it. I would like to go back.

[Greenheadless]

Had 16 and no draw...

Same here.

I have yet to draw since them moved to the new system that allows for multiple applications per category.

Before this, I would draw every couple years or so.

[jnd1959]

Most other states make you rank your choices. Some states test your second choice before testing the next hunter's first. Some states test all first choices and go on to second. All limit you to 2 or 3 with the exception of Arizona, which gives you five. Hence, a second pronghorn draw in Wyoming is almost a guaranteed fail unless you draw a predominately private land unit. A third choice in Arizona would cost you your points.

I'm in favor of 3 draws per category, ranked 1 to 3 with all choices checked by rank when a name is picked. For example:

I have site 1,2 and 3 as my ranked choices and my name is picked. My first choice is checked and fails. My second choice is picked and is successful.

There are problems with this system as well but it would open up lesser hunts to better odds. The state could offset some of this revenue by allowing the purchase of a loyalty point in years a person was not able to or didn't want to hunt.

It would be good to determine what the point numbers are for these lesser hunts. This is public information so it can be obtained through a foia application. I may do that since I'm retired and kind of a numbers guy.

[BoozeyBoy]

Such a waste of money

Wow, how many years did you put in for that hunt?

[Aggiebush]

Just checked and we were only at 14 points on our selection for mulie at Matador. Guess we got lucky there. My son is drawn for 2, Javi at James Daughtry and GDE at Hill Country. Still have exotic and Turkey draws, but we’ve been blessed.