Anyone moving stocks to more conservative safe haven areas?

[Hooverfb]

Hoover, what type of income instruments have you moved into? Bonds, Tbillls?


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Mostly debt vehicles. Notes, bonds, then some in market items where im exposing equity to the market, like REITs and mlps. This way im diversifying my buying power and risk.100$ today being value of x bond with y% return until done versus fluctuating equity value of a security that at present will result in reduced buying power through equity, but still get 7-9% return in income. Which honestly is more of a hedge against equity loss than a true return (unless you hold forever) because youre essentially getting back a portion of capital as income while your equity deflates, basically playing catch up but at least not totally losing buying power, because youre still generating something thats liquid.
On the reits and mlps, i try to find things that would be relatively the same return or slight discount if i did it myself with 80% leverage.
That all said i havent sold all of my stock holdings, because i dont do this full time haha. Still socking away into it at the same regular rate i would, since ive got plenty of time for the market to go up again. I just definitely would not solely continue investing in mostly stock during the bear market.

I used to write trading algorithms for a private firm, in my time there, one thing i learned is bear markets are harsh and blindingly fast compared to slow climbs up. So hopefully the end is sometime after summer or so.


Ill also add, at this point if holding mostly stock, just continue to hold. Even if shoulda woulda coulda is heavy, better to just accept it and hold until we are out of bad weather.

[SabineHunter]

Einstein, tell me again how old you will be when you retire from all of your vast investment expertise.


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Actually, Biggermouththanbrains, I plan to retire this June and don't have plans to touch my investments. I plan to leave them to my wife, daughter and granddaughter when I croak. I will have two pensions and SS. I have 5 properties that I will sell when I want to. Having zero debt helps a lot. And, I have one small business and thinking of a second come next spring. There, are you happy now.

[RiverRat1]

No doubt a lot of people's portfolio are out of balance with the run up in stocks every the last few years. if you are older, you need to rebalance periodically, not try to catch the falling knife!

Burnadell gets it! he's seen a few cycles so i've heard!

COIN at < 6 P/E and $84 looks like a good buy right now! crypto getting slammed but if you don't think it will rebound, you aren't paying attention.

And just like that it's now $62 !

[RiverRat1]

"You guys that are saying you sold in mass, please let us know when you jump back in."

This would be nice.
Because I suck at timing the market.

FYI - They suck at timing the markets also. At least on the selling side as markets were down 15-20% before they sold. Just saying LOL

[RiverRat1]

Man you guys that can time the market should send your resumes to Wall Street considering that there are scores of folks up there with teams or people trying to figure this out 24/7/365 to beat the market indexes and hardly none can do it over the long run after transaction costs, fees and taxes.

Day to day it's not possible. Year to year it's usually not possible. But look at it this way. The government can't figure out where all this inflation comes from. Don't they have teams of people also? So if you say it's from printing trillions then you're only guessing.

I don't understand how people didn't see the covid crash coming...Just like I don't understand how they didn't see this dip coming. Zero odds the pros on Wall Street and FA's should not have seen this coming..zero. When a river rat posts about it on TBH 3 months before it happens they had to know. It's what always happens when the FED raises rates.

IMO FA's don't care because they are paid not to. They lose money if people try to time the market so even when it's obvious they try their best to tell people they can't time the markets. And who's to say Wall Street didn't see this coming? They easily could have been short. They could have been a huge push of the "can't time markets". They win when people wait until stocks are down and then get scared and start selling.

[rtp]

Actually, Biggermouththanbrains, I plan to retire this June and don't have plans to touch my investments. I plan to leave them to my wife, daughter and granddaughter when I croak. I will have two pensions and SS. I have 5 properties that I will sell when I want to. Having zero debt helps a lot. And, I have one small business and thinking of a second come next spring. There, are you happy now.

I’m always happy. You just remind me of the young rookie running around telling everyone how great you are. Some people have already accomplished many times over what you hope to accomplish. Best of luck in your soon to be retirement from someone that has been retired for 2 decades come next week without a pension or SS. It’s a nice milestone to hit. It will be nice to have SS kick in when I celebrate my 3rd decade of retirement if I’m still here and it is still viable. [emoji6]


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[SabineHunter]

Well, RR1, I sold all my att today while I was still ahead. 100percent cash. I bet that'll chap rtps butt. LOL.

[TeamAmerica]

And just like that it's now $62 !

$73 last I checked. Long term hold!

More drama in the crypto market as USDT (tether) a so-called $1 stable coin dropped to $0.65.

[rtp]

Mostly debt vehicles. Notes, bonds, then some in market items where im exposing equity to the market, like REITs and mlps. This way im diversifying my buying power and risk.100$ today being value of x bond with y% return until done versus fluctuating equity value of a security that at present will result in reduced buying power through equity, but still get 7-9% return in income. Which honestly is more of a hedge against equity loss than a true return (unless you hold forever) because youre essentially getting back a portion of capital as income while your equity deflates, basically playing catch up but at least not totally losing buying power, because youre still generating something thats liquid.
On the reits and mlps, i try to find things that would be relatively the same return or slight discount if i did it myself with 80% leverage.
That all said i havent sold all of my stock holdings, because i dont do this full time haha. Still socking away into it at the same regular rate i would, since ive got plenty of time for the market to go up again. I just definitely would not solely continue investing in mostly stock during the bear market.

I used to write trading algorithms for a private firm, in my time there, one thing i learned is bear markets are harsh and blindingly fast compared to slow climbs up. So hopefully the end is sometime after summer or so.


Ill also add, at this point if holding mostly stock, just continue to hold. Even if shoulda woulda coulda is heavy, better to just accept it and hold until we are out of bad weather.

Thanks. Great response. My REITs were up 40% over the past year or so but have gotten clobbered of late. It is sad the bond market is what it is. It has forced people to chase more risk like REITs to get the return they need/want. A year ago you couldn’t find a high quality bond that paid more than 1% ish if memory serves me correct. As my bonds matured over the past 2-3 years I moved them into high quality equities because they just weren’t paying anything. Even with this dump I’m well ahead of what I would have made reupping with new bonds. As it turned out, I trimmed about 45% of my bond allocation out. As interest rates increase through out this year I may look at shifting money back into bonds to get my preferred allocations back in order. I started another specific account use account from the proceeds of a real estate sale in January 21. Even after this dump it is still up right at 25%. I hate it has gone down but that’s just part of it.


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[rtp]

Well, RR1, I sold all my att today while I was still ahead. 100percent cash. I bet that'll chap rtps butt. LOL.

Why would I care what you do with your money? I don’t wish I’ll will on anyone. I was just stating my belief that going all cash or close to it is a losing proposition. You do you and I’ll do me. [emoji6]


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[RiverRat1]

$73 last I checked. Long term hold!

More drama in the crypto market as USDT (tether) a so-called $1 stable coin dropped to $0.65.

It's not USDT - It's a different stable coin. I freaked out and checked three times because I have a few bucks in USDT LOL

[RiverRat1]

Thanks. Great response. My REITs were up 40% over the past year or so but have gotten clobbered of late. It is sad the bond market is what it is. It has forced people to chase more risk like REITs to get the return they need/want. A year ago you couldn’t find a high quality bond that paid more than 1% ish if memory serves me correct. As my bonds matured over the past 2-3 years I moved them into high quality equities because they just weren’t paying anything. Even with this dump I’m well ahead of what I would have made reupping with new bonds. As it turned out, I trimmed about 45% of my bond allocation out. As interest rates increase through out this year I may look at shifting money back into bonds to get my preferred allocations back in order. I started another specific account use account from the proceeds of a real estate sale in January 21. Even after this dump it is still up right at 25%. I hate it has gone down but that’s just part of it.
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I'm really wondering what will happen over the next 12 months. FED raises rates 2-3 more times and good tax free bonds get over 5-6% and I'm buying for sure. But I'm sure tons of people feel that way. I just can't see them letting that happen or stocks will get even cheaper.

[Hooverfb]

Thanks. Great response. My REITs were up 40% over the past year or so but have gotten clobbered of late. It is sad the bond market is what it is. It has forced people to chase more risk like REITs to get the return they need/want. A year ago you couldn’t find a high quality bond that paid more than 1% ish if memory serves me correct. As my bonds matured over the past 2-3 years I moved them into high quality equities because they just weren’t paying anything. Even with this dump I’m well ahead of what I would have made reupping with new bonds. As it turned out, I trimmed about 45% of my bond allocation out. As interest rates increase through out this year I may look at shifting money back into bonds to get my preferred allocations back in order. I started another specific account use account from the proceeds of a real estate sale in January 21. Even after this dump it is still up right at 25%. I hate it has gone down but that’s just part of it.


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Unfortunately its the nature of supply and demand, with compression coming from people seeking a mixture of relatively decent return with some security. It used to be bonds, but once enough people had enough capital and enough knowledge/capability to access, flooded demand, so could issue more bonds with lower percentage (alot being passed over, but high level view). Then floods into stocks because of the high return and growing knowledge. Now we've capitulated market algorithms and reversions to mean movements because of retail capital being directed by institutional capital looking for returns. Bear markets reveal why the market isnt nearly the safe haven a lot of people thought it was, so will see how it affects things in that perspective, but so much capital is wrapped up in stocks i dont see retail massively pulling out, unless we see bonds become tangibly attractive.

[rtp]

Unfortunately its the nature of supply and demand, with compression coming from people seeking a mixture of relatively decent return with some security. It used to be bonds, but once enough people had enough capital and enough knowledge/capability to access, flooded demand, so could issue more bonds with lower percentage (alot being passed over, but high level view). Then floods into stocks because of the high return and growing knowledge. Now we've capitulated market algorithms and reversions to mean movements because of retail capital being directed by institutional capital looking for returns. Bear markets reveal why the market isnt nearly the safe haven a lot of people thought it was, so will see how it affects things in that perspective, but so much capital is wrapped up in stocks i dont see retail massively pulling out, unless we see bonds become tangibly attractive.

Well stated and I agree 100%.

[RiverRat1]

Unfortunately its the nature of supply and demand, with compression coming from people seeking a mixture of relatively decent return with some security. It used to be bonds, but once enough people had enough capital and enough knowledge/capability to access, flooded demand, so could issue more bonds with lower percentage (alot being passed over, but high level view). Then floods into stocks because of the high return and growing knowledge. Now we've capitulated market algorithms and reversions to mean movements because of retail capital being directed by institutional capital looking for returns. Bear markets reveal why the market isnt nearly the safe haven a lot of people thought it was, so will see how it affects things in that perspective, but so much capital is wrapped up in stocks i dont see retail massively pulling out, unless we see bonds become tangibly attractive.

I'm really wondering what will happen over the next 12 months. FED raises rates 2-3 more times and good tax free bonds get over 5-6% and I'm buying for sure. But I'm sure tons of people feel that way. I just can't see them letting that happen or stocks will get even cheaper.

Like 5-6% ?? Or you thinking more?