Draw Hunts

[C.Read]

5 not selected, 3 pending second draw......oh well, I'll give them some more money next year.

[grizzman]

Justin Hurst Feral Hog hunt in February.

[Phorizt]

Ok, so what’s your draw odds with one point and 10,000 other draw positions and then with 8 points?


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it's 8x better. Odds still suck but instead of 1/10000 it's 1/1250. I'd rather have 8x the odds of getting drawn but still understand that the odds of drawing one of the better hunts are very slim for everyone no matter how many points. Even if you had 20 points for some hunts it would be slim. I would guess that there are probably close to 25000 draw positions(5000 people entered per TPWD and an estimated 5 points per person which may be low for rifle either sex) for the Chap rifle hunt with only 25 people getting chosen each year. So even if you have 20 points your odds are less than 1/1000. But somebody has to get drawn so might as well keep trying and hope to someday get lucky.

[JoelBRice]

Drew the Lower Rio Grande Teniente Nilgai hunt in January and the powderhorn Sambar/axis hunt in February, blessed year!!!

[Mule Skinner]

10 pending second draw.

Should those fail, I’ll be 0-47 this year.

[bossbowman]

For those getting drawn how many points did you have? I am just curious if 5 points is alot for Spring Turkey or 7pts of Archery Deer? I have only been drawn by mistake. They e-mailed me later apologized and gave me back my few points.

Not many really, I don't put in for turkey but I have 10 years of points for archery now.

I do find it odd I won 2 hunts my verrrryyyy first time applying.. .and have spent the last two years (2 years after my first) not winning anything.. lol.

I'm starting to think its heavily weighted to first time applicants as well to get you hooked on the crack...

[drogers6771]

Ok well next season you guys with heavy LP's in certain categories can go ahead and ust put me in on a group app with yall since LP's dont matter, no harm no foul

[thisisbeer]

Not many really, I don't put in for turkey but I have 10 years of points for archery now.


I'm starting to think its heavily weighted to first time applicants as well to get you hooked on the crack...

I don't think it's weighted towards new applicants. From what it sounds like when people get 5+ preference points they tend to only put in for the well known and sought after hunts. These have very low odds of drawing. New people put in for everything. This is my second year. I put in for literally everything each year. I drew 6 hunts this year, but the draws were mostly high percentage draws.

Also, preference points are basically useless. If 1,000 people get in a drawing and you have 10 points and everyone else has 1 you go from a .1% to a 1% chance. It's a better chance but still very low. Considering in reality a lot of the other people will have more than 1 preference point it makes the chance even lower.

[CAP]

I don't think it's weighted towards new applicants. From what it sounds like when people get 5+ preference points they tend to only put in for the well known and sought after hunts. These have very low odds of drawing. New people put in for everything. This is my second year. I put in for literally everything each year. I drew 6 hunts this year, but the draws were mostly high percentage draws.

Never thought of it like this but it makes perfect sense. People with a lot of points don’t want to blow them on mediocre hunts so they put in for the long shots.

[Jspradley]

I don't think it's weighted towards new applicants. From what it sounds like when people get 5+ preference points they tend to only put in for the well known and sought after hunts. These have very low odds of drawing. New people put in for everything. This is my second year. I put in for literally everything each year. I drew 6 hunts this year, but the draws were mostly high percentage draws.

Git outta here with that logic!

That's honestly the most reasonable explanation I've seen, makes perfect sense.

I've been putting in going on 5 years and I've drawn something each time. I haven't drawn any of the high demand extremely low odds hunts that I really want but I've drawn something.

[jnd1959]

What the state needs to do is publish the total points going into the draw. Wyoming does this and breaks it down by number with points. Yes, Wyoming is a preference point/random hybrid but I do think Texas could provide more information on their draws odds and on success.

The reason it appears the draw is weighted to first time applicants can be explained by the following example:

Let's say there are 10,000 points in a draw and 4,000 applicants. Of these 4,000 applicants 3,000 are first time, 500 are 2 pointers, and the rest are multiple point applicants. It's not the individual odds that determine if a newbie gets drawn it is the ratio of newbies to pointers. 1 and two pointers have 4,000 points. Pointers have the remaining 6,000 points. Therefore, there is a 40% chance a newbie will get drawn. I don't know the actual point breakdown but I bet low point applicants are a significant number. I think the system should pick 50% based on points being a preference and the remaining 50% based on points as is. This way, if you have 28 points for pronghorn in Texas (what I would compare to drawing Bighorn in wyoming) and that is the top point draw, you have a 50% chance times the number of top point holders. So, if there are 30 top point holders and there are 4 slots, of which 2 go to preference, your odds are 6.67% in the preference draw and (for 10,000 total points from above) 28/9,160 or .31% in the regular draw (I'll let the statisticions figure the overall odds, statistics ws 40 years ago for me).

It is very likely, based on the current system, that a newbie will get drawn because the number of 1 or 2 point holders are significant.

Test on Friday.

[Army of Dad]

Ok well next season you guys with heavy LP's in certain categories can go ahead and ust put me in on a group app with yall since LP's dont matter, no harm no foul

From a point perspective it won’t change much, but an additional applicant might hurt more based on number of positions available. That’s a deeper statistics dive than I can do, but if for instance I added you to an app with my hunting partner there could be instances where our app is drawn and rejected because we have more hunters than open slots.


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[thisisbeer]

From a point perspective it won’t change much, but an additional applicant might hurt more based on number of positions available. That’s a deeper statistics dive than I can do, but if for instance I added you to an app with my hunting partner there could be instances where our app is drawn and rejected because we have more hunters than open slots.


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Going in as a group is almost always better. If one of you is picked then the group is picked. If there are four of you in a group it multiplies your chances of getting picked by 4.

If there are only 4 spots available then someone in your group would need to be the first one picked. In that scenario your odds are just a little less than everyone else.

You have 4 times the chance of getting picked, but your only going after one specific (the specific part is the only reason the odds are less) spot where everyone else is going for 1 of four spots.

If there are 6 spots available your odds are better than a single applicant. You have 3 specific spots you can draw at a higher rate of drawing than a single applicant.

Basically, a group always has better odds as long as there are more spots available than whats on the group.

This was super quick math so I coudl be wrong.

[Jspradley]

What the state needs to do is publish the total points going into the draw. Wyoming does this and breaks it down by number with points. Yes, Wyoming is a preference point/random hybrid but I do think Texas could provide more information on their draws odds and on success.

The reason it appears the draw is weighted to first time applicants can be explained by the following example:

Let's say there are 10,000 points in a draw and 4,000 applicants. Of these 4,000 applicants 3,000 are first time, 500 are 2 pointers, and the rest are multiple point applicants. It's not the individual odds that determine if a newbie gets drawn it is the ratio of newbies to pointers. 1 and two pointers have 4,000 points. Pointers have the remaining 6,000 points. Therefore, there is a 40% chance a newbie will get drawn. I don't know the actual point breakdown but I bet low point applicants are a significant number. I think the system should pick 50% based on points being a preference and the remaining 50% based on points as is. This way, if you have 28 points for pronghorn in Texas (what I would compare to drawing Bighorn in wyoming) and that is the top point draw, you have a 50% chance times the number of top point holders. So, if there are 30 top point holders and there are 4 slots, of which 2 go to preference, your odds are 6.67% in the preference draw and (for 10,000 total points from above) 28/9,160 or .31% in the regular draw (I'll let the statisticions figure the overall odds, statistics ws 40 years ago for me).

It is very likely, based on the current system, that a newbie will get drawn because the number of 1 or 2 point holders are significant.

Test on Friday.

I do agree that they should post their methodology for drawing.

What you said is basically what was stated above, if those numbers are accurate then it would make it more likely that the winner would be a first timer but not increase the chances that any individual first timer would draw. There's just a lot more noobs in the pool as they/we apply for as many hunts as possible.

[jshouse]

Drew the Lower Rio Grande Teniente Nilgai hunt in January and the powderhorn Sambar/axis hunt in February, blessed year!!!

dang, good luck, do some live hunts