Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

[texashunter56]

Latest model.
[ATTACH]869901[/ATTACH]

About half of the projected paths in this model take it right over my house/land... I would prefer to be on the west side of the eye but now looks like I will be in the bullseye or on the east side. I still think once it gets very close or makes landfall it is going to do something erratic and slow way down.

[stykshooter]

Dayton is in the 20" rain area, that will cause flooding like we had in Allison. I remember some roads in Liberty county that with water over them and some being impassable. I look for "the Preserve" to see it's first flood under it's new name. Lot's of folks gonna be upset when they see how much water that place can get in a flood.

I wasn't around when Allison hit but 321 between Cleveland & Dayton has a few spots that when floods hit will cross 321. Seen a old Bronco by the VFW (near Cleveland) in the ditch completely submerged.

I'll need to spend my weekend in Conroe but I had planned to leave for Nebraska for hunting season

[Jaybo31]

This thing is not going to make up its mind. Now the CMC model that had it coming in and nose diving into Mexico yesterday is now back on the path of come in and shoot up the coast along with other models. GFS comes in and hangs out looking like it wants to shoot up the coast but just meanders around in one area.

How often do the models run? Every 6 hours?

[Gladesgator]

Wow. Harvey has made some major improvements in organization over night. Almost all factors that were inhibiting development are gone.. very low shear, dry air should be filled in later today, and system appears that its vertically stacked. All systems go for intensification, and models are showing that. Track seems to have certainly zeroed in on the Corpus area, and the GFS and others are getting this to Cat 3/Cat 4 levels. Last night I would have said that seems crazy, but infrared appearance this morning is impressive. If I were in the Corpus area I would not be taking this lightly.. As well, It wouldn't surprise me to a creep little East today.

Serious rain threat is still a major concern for Houston area.

The window is shrinking, and margin of error in models is as well.

Another thing, the spaghetti models that get posted.. there are several "models" in there that are basically worthless. They are statistical type models and shouldn't be taken seriously, IMO. Euro, GFS, and then CMC, UKMET, navgem,and to an extent the NAM are ones to look at it for tropical systems and setup.

Just my opinion, and not an official forecast..

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I was in the Fire service in south FL for 35 years and had many interactions with the National Hurricane center concerning hurricane events.

Their message was they have gotten pretty good with tracking forecasts but not as good with intensity forecasts and intensification timing.

I think you are on the money with this storm, if the pressure continues to drop at the same rate, the coast is facing a much stronger storm than a Cat 1.
This one reminds me of Wilma which caught many in FL by surprise.

Hope, everyone takes this one very seriously and prepares for, and makes evacuation plans for a much stronger storm.

And, even if that does not come to pass, you will be safe and out of harms way.
There were lots of folks in FL that wish they had taken Opal and Wilma more seriously.

Prayers for all, but take appropriate actions.

[crawdaddct]

Wal-Mart, people fighting over bread and water. Gas stations empty. HAd to go to four different places to get gas. We are definitely in full panic mode. If you normally flood, your probably going to flood. I will be sitting at home watching Netflix. If it clears any this weekend, Ill be fishing.

[stykshooter]

I was in the Fire service in south FL for 35 years and had many interactions with the National Hurricane center concerning hurricane events.

Their message was they have gotten pretty good with tracking forecasts but not as good with intensity forecasts and intensification timing.

I think you are on the money with this storm, if the pressure continues to drop at the same rate, the coast is facing a much stronger storm than a Cat 1.
This one reminds me of Wilma which caught many in FL by surprise.

Hope, everyone takes this one very seriously and prepares for, and makes evacuation plans for a much stronger storm.

And, even if that does not come to pass, you will be safe and out of harms way.
There were lots of folks in FL that wish they had taken Opal and Wilma more seriously.

Prayers for all, but take appropriate actions.

I have a home on the North End of Miami Beach & remember Wilma I usually sit them out but decided to leave, 75 died that day

[WItoTX]

Wal-Mart, people fighting over bread and water. Gas stations empty. HAd to go to four different places to get gas. We are definitely in full panic mode. If you normally flood, your probably going to flood. I will be sitting at home watching Netflix. If it clears any this weekend, Ill be fishing.

Dang man, I went to in Wal-Mart last night, and looked at others carts. A few had a couple cases of water, but most folks looked like they were still shopping for normal groceries like a typical Wednesday night. I grabbed a couple cases of water, some batteries, and got out. Swung by Kroger, looked to be able the same situation.

Also, all the fuel pumps were open, diesel fuel was still $2.15/gallon. Granted I am in Katy, I still expected maybe a little more panic/rushing around. I was presently surprised to see adults acting as adults should, not some mad house.

[ultrastealth]

Dang man, I went to in Wal-Mart last night, and looked at others carts. A few had a couple cases of water, but most folks looked like they were still shopping for normal groceries like a typical Wednesday night. I grabbed a couple cases of water, some batteries, and got out. Swung by Kroger, looked to be able the same situation.

Also, all the fuel pumps were open, diesel fuel was still $2.15/gallon. Granted I am in Katy, I still expected maybe a little more panic/rushing around. I was presently surprised to see adults acting as adults should, not some mad house.

I had to wait in line to get gas at Sam's in Katy yesterday afternoon, which is never the case, so some people are concerned. Generally speaking it takes wind to lose power and utilities, so this is much more likely to be a flooding problem than that kind of thing.

[tmurray]

I just want to say thanks to everyone involved in this thread, it's been my most trusted source of updates for the last 48 hours. Keep up the good work, I truly appreciate it.

[Dusty Britches]

On the way into work in College Station, a TX Dot sign said, "Hurricane warning Texas Coastline" "Avoid travel to coast"

There's an understatement.

[Backwoods101]

I just want to say thanks to everyone involved in this thread, it's been my most trusted source of updates for the last 48 hours. Keep up the good work, I truly appreciate it.

X2

[mmoses]

Well we are in a hotel in Goliad. We were going to the State Park and Presidio this morning but its all closed now. We are going to give SPI a miss this weekend as its not looking good. Hate to eat all that non refundable vacay money but its not looking good. Head home to The Woodlands, bring everything in and head to the farm in Madisonville. ****.


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Call your credit card company, lots of cards have built in travel insurance that most people don't even know about!

[bloodstick]

Well we are in a hotel in Goliad. We were going to the State Park and Presidio this morning but its all closed now. We are going to give SPI a miss this weekend as its not looking good. Hate to eat all that non refundable vacay money but its not looking good. Head home to The Woodlands, bring everything in and head to the farm in Madisonville. ****.


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Holler if yall need anything. We are just down the road a little ways

[axisbuck24]

I just want to say thanks to everyone involved in this thread, it's been my most trusted source of updates for the last 48 hours. Keep up the good work, I truly appreciate it.

I second TMurray post! Our local TBH weather forecast individuals have always been much more reliable. Continue the good work Johnny and all who provide valuable information to help keep everyone safe.


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[marshhunter]

Not sure if this has already been posted. I assume there is a +- of a couple hours on the exact time.


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