Recession!

[OldRiverRat]

Speculators thought there was going to be a decrease in demand for oil, so the price dropped. It’s not over yet though. This is just a little price break to make you focus on “I just saved $0.20 a gallon!!” instead of “I just got bent over at the gas pump”. It would surprise the mess out of me if oil did not hit $150 a barrel by years end.

Yeah don’t get excited, it’s just a dip but nothing has changed and prices will be high for a while. The only thing that will change pricing here is a new admin , that’s it.


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[Muddy Bud]

that's not a model. it's 2 months in a row with negative GDP.

I believe it’s two consecutive quarters. But I wouldn’t doubt it if we’re all ready there.

[Shane]

that's not a model. it's 2 months in a row with negative GDP.

The Atlanta Fed estimate is a model that tries to predict what the actual number will be. Sometimes it's right, and sometimes it's not. The final Q2 GDP numbers will be out in a couple weeks. We'll know then if we're officially in a recession or not. "Recession" is 2 quarters (6 months) in a row of GDP contraction (negative growth).

[hpdrifter]

The Atlanta Fed estimate is a model that tries to predict what the actual number will be. Sometimes it's right, and sometimes it's not. The final Q2 GDP numbers will be out in a couple weeks. We'll know then if we're officially in a recession or not. "Recession" is 2 quarters (6 months) in a row of GDP contraction (negative growth).

yep, I meant quarters. ok, estimates are saying we're in a recession. maybe the feds will change the meaning and/or formula.

[OldRiverRat]

The problem with a recession is that you are already in a recession before you know it!
I would be Shocked if we had positive growth in q2 but I would be less shocked if the data was skewed to show like .01% growth


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[91cavgt]

yep, I meant quarters. ok, estimates are saying we're in a recession. maybe the feds will change the meaning and/or formula.

It would not be the first time that calculations were changed in an attempt to make things look better than they actually are. Inflation for example has been changed how it is calculated twice since the 80’s. Any economist that tries to compare today’s inflation with what we saw in the 70’s and 80’s is flat out lying to you. If we calculated the current inflation rate the same way we did before the calculations were changed then the inflation rate would be around 20%!!!