Warning from Texas Rancher

[S-3 Ranch]

Where are they out of?


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Dayton Ohio, they ship industrial carbon black and coking
Apparently if a agriculture product is in surplus it’s just cheaper to
Dispose of instead of storage for it , or the rail cars are under contract to ship his products and are full the shipping brokers shuffle it from rail to barge ( to complicated and confusing for my pay grade)

[SoTXAg06]

Its a long story that goes back around 3O years. The citrus man who planted the little trees for us told me, “ this will never work, your a cotton farmer, when its time to spray citrus you will be too busy playing in your cotton fields!” remember 30 years ago everything was different in Valley agriculture, we had many options on the table on how to make a dollar. (seed corn, watermelons, cabbage, onions, pickles, cantaloupe, sorgum, cotton etc.) the farm was small, probably 400 to 500 acres, I took reasonable good care of the orchard, the citrus was often the top money maker. Fast forward 25 years and all my neighbors started to pass awAy from old age, farm got too big or some locals might say “ I didnt want it all, just what was next to me”, in no time at all we were a 1000 acres, slowly over 2 decades it went to 2200, I stayed there awhile and settled in, then I took on another farm that I didnt need ( the nilgai farm) then another neighbor died, another neighbor cut back, farm now seems huge, out of my control, it stopped raining and started flooding 1 time a year, so my 30 acre of citrus turned into something that was hard to fit, the citrus shed giants are thieves, I bailed and went organic to take advantage of those healthy wannabes I fondly call hippies, tons of chicken poop, lots of sulpher, it didnt work because too many small orchards went organic at the same time, the kids running the shed were overwhelmed, I know the feeling, then After the organic fiasco It was like the trees were in rebab trying to recover from not being fertilized, last few years the fruit business was, like nobody wanted the fruit, then I got quarantined, then I got a bulldozer buddy childhood friend, I no longer have citrus, i know i ramble and typing on my phone is hard. The gentlemen who told me it wouldn’t work was the same guy talking me into organic, good man with good intentions for me, I do not blame him and after 30 years he was right, Im a cotton farmer

Good read, thanks. I’ve heard it’s rough in the valley this year. A lot of cotton acres, and other things, being zeroed out.


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[RatherBhuntin]

For those saying the cattle can just be left on the pasture and will be fine is not entirely accurate. Assuming ranchers herd size does not increase they could probably sustain, but all ranchers are in the business of breeding to sell calf's thus increasing herd size. A pasture will only support so many head of cattle.

The bigger issue is the feedlots. Cattle packed in with no grass, and they can't afford just to keep feeding them. So yes cattle will be euthanized to cut losses if they can't be processed.

As stated above it takes grass or cash to keep cattle alive.

[Dushon]

Dayton Ohio, they ship industrial carbon black and coking

Apparently if a agriculture product is in surplus it’s just cheaper to

Dispose of instead of storage for it , or the rail cars are under contract to ship his products and are full the shipping brokers shuffle it from rail to barge ( to complicated and confusing for my pay grade)

I was hoping they were out of Houston. I’d love to get cheap commodities to make cattle feed


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[Farmdog]

Planting Expensive Cheap Cotton on YOUTUBE.Com, if you want a quick look, this young farmer did a great job explaining planting season, I enjoyed it anyways, you have to try and make a family party out it at that age! Just threw this log on the fire

[SoTXAg06]

Planting Expensive Cheap Cotton on YOUTUBE.Com, if you want a quick look, this young farmer did a great job explaining planting season, I enjoyed it anyways, you have to try and make a family party out it at that age! Just threw this log on the fire

It’s pretty accurate, haha. We plant our test plots with a cut down JD MaxEmerge planter. I swear we look at seed depth on cotton more than anything.


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[Farmdog]

I have a 12 row Maxemerge I will sell for 22k, I paid 26 for it from a dealer that moves planters into Mex It sits in a barn! I stayed 8 row after all, Ive never used it, its a good piece of equipment just sitting, plant your sunflower plots in 10 minutes

[SoTXAg06]

I have a 12 row Maxemerge I will sell for 22k, I paid 26 for it from a dealer that moves planters into Mex It sits in a barn! I stayed 8 row after all, Ive never used it, its a good piece of equipment just sitting, plant your sunflower plots in 10 minutes

That’s 10 more rows than we use now... haha

Not sure a 50 hp tractor would budge that.


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[Rangefinder]

Aint nobody in their right mind about to just go kill steers......Just put on grass till later.

Depends on how much grass you got and how many head you have grass.

[Farmdog]

I have 150 head on 80 acres, how much trouble am I in? I fertilize and irrigate and rotate all the time, a spreader load of dry fertilizer cost $1400.00, I see calves ready to go, heifers ready for a bull, took 4 calves to sale barn got 500 apiece, then took 12 calves and got 400 each chasing the new virus market, then I just started irrigating and keeping them but can only hold out so long, Im almost out of hay but grass is growing again. I buy water for 25 dollars an acre in Brownsville and transfer it to Mercedes District # 9, all I need is volume should have stayed in citrus, a grapefruit never chased me or tried knocking me down over a newborn

[Dusty Britches]

I did not watch the video because the first few minutes drives me nuts.

I think there's a basic understanding that is missed. The beef industry for the most part is not producers selling to consumers. It is micro supply -demand and push-pull economics.

Stockers are 400- 800 weight calves.
Feeders are 800-1200+ weight. It generally takes 30-42 months to get to slaughter.

So, a cow calf producer's buyer is the stocker operator, unless he keeps them until they are feeders, but he still sells internally from cow-calf to stocker.

Stocker operators sell to feed lots.

Feed lots sell to packers.

Packers sell to consumers.

This can be all done by the original cow calf producer, but these are the basic markets.

So consumers demand a lot of beef - pulling the chain of the markets.
Packers provide the beef they process but to keep providing, they buy from feed lots.
As the feed lots empty, they buy feeders.
And the stockers sell feeders, they need to replenish their stockers so they buy from cow calf producers.

And there in lies the whole issue - the packers shut down and like a tango line, the people behind the packers slammed into a dead stop, but the calves are still growing, getting bigger. And the consumer is still consuming.

And we haven't even mentioned the impacts of dairies going out of business and selling their stock directly to packers. So the packers are holding all of the cards and their supply is getting bigger and bigger (less costs, more options) and the consumer is willing to pay higher and higher prices for processed beef.

Is anyone killing calves or stockers or feeders right now? No. Could it happen? Maybe but according to our self-described most intelligent supreme being Ag Commissioner Sid Miller, everything will be ok in 3-4 weeks. And he said this morning on the radio that no one is killing their herds.

[Texans42]

Or the illusion of packers not buying, since they control the futures.

[Landrover]

Storage is definitely finite.........in an elevator or still in the pasture, etc.

You Need to watch it over, he is right on mostly, the killing of steers you can toss out maybe but he has plenty of other talking points that are true. I just plowed out 30 acres of citrus loaded with fruit at a cost to bulldoze, burn, root plow rake burn again for 560 an acre, next day after dozer started I heard where a Shipment of fruit arrived from another country, cabbage and onion fields are being plowed too, world wide hunger will make the virus look Small, Trump is too busy patting himself on the back all the time, Biden has lost his mind, plus he is from the wrong party IMO,see what happens, none of it looks good, good luck everyone

We have proven we will always shoot ourselves in the foot in order to profit...…..at the expense of the producer. Currently leadership is screaming about our country fighting thru this situation but continue to act opposite when it truly matters.

I remember my grandpa and other old timers tell stories about the gubment coming in during the depression years, they dug pits, herded the livestock, shot them then buried them. Then the reasoning was to get rid of the overabundance to create demand thus create a market. Who's to say it can't happen again, surely our over-reaching over-inflated gubment wouldn't stoop to such measures.

Definitely can happen again as history repeats itself......sooner or later......when lessons are not heeded the first time.

Or the illusion of packers not buying, since they control the futures.

Ouch...….lotta potential for that scenario. Once commodities leave the farm (or not leave the farm) the multitude of middle-men tend to control everything.

[monsterspike]

the middle men control nothing in this industry. the packers name their own price. that luxury exists no where else in the supply chain.

[Dushon]

Here’s what I don’t understand. Why aren’t there more packers? Seems crazy that there aren’t more small kill plants


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