Weekend Rolling Blackouts

[Killer]

WFAA-TV out of Dallas reported on May 6th in video coverage that ERCOT asked power generators to postpone planned maintenance in order ensure the power grid can meet demand. KXAS-TV Dallas reported ERCOT “tells NBC 5 it issued an Advanced Action Notice (AAN) asking power plant owners and generators to postpone planned maintenance and to return from maintenance already in progress.” In another statement, Rickerson said, “Generators and transmission owners have worked with us to reschedule maintenance outages. Those changes, along with a slight drop in forecasted temperatures, have given us sufficient reserves.” Rickerson added, “With unseasonably warm weather in the forecast, we will continue to monitor conditions so we can reliably operate the grid.”

Folks it is only the first week of May. You can blow it off but it will not get better in August and September. Maybe nothing happens and that will be good but the government definitely has us in a bad way on generation capacity in the State of Texas.

Per what folks on here have already said ERCOT asked them to reschedule plant maintenance at the Generation Plants because of the warmer than normal temperatures. I do not remember this ever happing in May in past summers? Maybe someone else knows?

[DaveC]

Hourly schmuck plant guy here-
On this morning's call with traders /forecasters one of the voices of reason on the other end of the phone said this May looks very similar to the May of 2011.

Our planned maintenance outages will be over in Early June.

They (ERCOT) could have asked something as simple as an overnight repair to be postponed.
Not all shutdown repairs are long drawn out ordeals.
A control module issue (amongst many other things) will at times require a shutdown to repair as to not trip the unit while fiddling with it.
Some repairs are best handled via an outage, depending on the severity permission is asked for.
Sometimes granted, sometimes revoked.

[Bubba]

Any idea how many other plants are doing repairs or maintenance right now and won’t be at full capacity by the weekend?

I know alittle about this subject. I've been operating them for awhile (28yrs).Its hard to say across the state how many units are in outage.Id guess and say at least 1 unit at 25% to 40% of the gas plants.Thats just becuse its that time of the year for maintenance. Plants take 2 planed outages a year Fall and Spring. Most outages are 2 to 3 weeks per unit. Gas turbines will usually have a major outage every 5 years. These outages take a little longer depending on repairs. A steam turbine major can be stretched out to every 10yrs.This is very dependent on how often you cycle the units on and off and how they are operated. They like to run. Most plants these days cycle some of their units daily. As with most things Covid cause outages to be pushed back. We were scheduled for a major outage last year and end up pushing it off a year. When we finally got to it ran over a month due to parts and unexpected delays. I’m sure this is the same in other plants. Environmental and Ercot Regulations change the game for bigger units. It causes them to cycle more & move load more which are not good for them. Plant’s business needs seem to get stretched more and more every year. There’s really little incentive for companies to build New gas plants.

[Bubba]

I was in wind for about 6 years. I commented a lot about it on here because of all the misinformation that was being said. The money was good but I wanted something more stable, I work for a local municipality now. The pays ok but the insurance and retirement are great.

Who'd you go to work for?Just curious as I too make power.

[easeup]

it is 105F hot!
you power guys keep it going please!

[DaveC]

The prints have been yuge today!

$5300 ish as I walked by the CR console earlier.

It quickly mover to $3300 when I pointed it out, not sure how long it was $5k+.

[91cavgt]

The prints have been yuge today!

$5300 ish as I walked by the CR console earlier.

It quickly mover to $3300 when I pointed it out, not sure how long it was $5k+.

Can you translate what this means?

[BrandonA]

We lost electricity for a minute this weekend at the ranch

[DaveC]

Can you translate what this means?

I wish I could.

That's $5300 a MW being supposedly paid out for that interval.

The how it works is way out of my wheelhouse.
I know our plant's (a cogen) break even is / was ~$25-28.00 a mw.

People around here get excited when it breaks $100.

To hit the thousands is big money days.
When the $$ gets high it indicates lack of reserves, this spike will normally have peakers throughout the state will come on line to fill the gap and the $$ per MW will start falling as the reserves are met and exceeded.

Once again, way out of my wheelhouse- I'm a knuckle dragger keeping one of the many of these plants running.



Maybe someone who trades MW's for a living can chime in and explain how the payout works.

[CentralTXHunter]

I wish I could.

That's $5300 a MW being supposedly paid out for that interval.

The how it works is way out of my wheelhouse.
I know our plant's (a cogen) break even is / was ~$25-28.00 a mw.

People around here get excited when it breaks $100.

To hit the thousands is big money days.
When the $$ gets high it indicates lack of reserves, this spike will normally have peakers throughout the state will come on line to fill the gap and the $$ per MW will start falling as the reserves are met and exceeded.

Once again, way out of my wheelhouse- I'm a knuckle dragger keeping one of the many of these plants running.



Maybe someone who trades MW's for a living can chime in and explain how the payout works.

It’s relatively complicated. I don’t trade, but i do energy consulting in the deregulated market. Brief overview is like this:

Just because you have a power plant doesn’t mean you can run it. You have to bid for the power for the next day. ERCOT then says who can run and when for the next day based off the forecasted demand. When demand abnormally spikes or clouds cover a big solar field or the wind dies unexpectedly or a plant trips offline, whatever, ERCOT then calls on other plants to contribute to the grid. These interruptions cause price spikes. The grid is broken down into Hubs (larger geographical areas) and Load Zones (smaller geographical areas within a Hub). There is pricing to the Hub and the Load Zone. Sometimes congestion or an outage can cause a spike in one particular Load Zone across the state. A state wide event is usually weather related (extreme heat or cold). Grid pricing can be negative or it can cap out at $9,000/MW. Most events (especially heat related) are short lived. Price will spike, additional generation will be called on, and price will settle back down. Without getting into the weeds, most retail energy providers hedge their portfolio. Whatever they’re not protected against they have to buy on the open market at spot price. This is what caused some retail energy providers to file bankruptcy after the freeze event since it was such a long time at high spot prices. They were overexposed and it cost them millions in just a few days. Some power plants make their entire year profit off just a few hours of high price spikes over the calendar year.


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[Killer]

That’s the problem with the generation market!
Some power plants make their entire year profit off just a few hours of high price spikes over the calendar year.
No incentive to increase generation and cut cost. Keep the margins close with no reserves and jack the price per MW.

[100%TtId]

That’s the problem with the generation market!
Some power plants make their entire year profit off just a few hours of high price spikes over the calendar year.

No incentive to increase generation and cut cost. Keep the margins close with no reserves and jack the price per MW.

Well, no that's not really how it works.

The power plants referred to below as "peakers" are designed to be fast-start, fast-response units that can produce power at a moment's notice in response to unforseen changes in demand or unplanned system failures. They can quickly provide frequency modulation to prevent brownouts or spikes.

Peakers are usually NOT economical to run for long periods of time because they burn fuel (almost always natural gas) much faster than other plants that are designed for efficiency but take several hours to generate power from a cold start. A stable, reliable grid system requires both types of generation.

Being a Peaker is no guarantee of profits. A lot of them lose money year after year until they make it up during rare periods of high demand and low supply.

Without peakers, we'd have frequent outages. The problem, in my opinion, is too much reliance on unreliable renewable sources like wind and solar.

[rebelbow]

I know alittle about this subject. I've been operating them for awhile (28yrs).Its hard to say across the state how many units are in outage.Id guess and say at least 1 unit at 25% to 40% of the gas plants.Thats just becuse its that time of the year for maintenance. Plants take 2 planed outages a year Fall and Spring. Most outages are 2 to 3 weeks per unit. Gas turbines will usually have a major outage every 5 years. These outages take a little longer depending on repairs. A steam turbine major can be stretched out to every 10yrs.This is very dependent on how often you cycle the units on and off and how they are operated. They like to run. Most plants these days cycle some of their units daily. As with most things Covid cause outages to be pushed back. We were scheduled for a major outage last year and end up pushing it off a year. When we finally got to it ran over a month due to parts and unexpected delays. I’m sure this is the same in other plants. Environmental and Ercot Regulations change the game for bigger units. It causes them to cycle more & move load more which are not good for them. Plant’s business needs seem to get stretched more and more every year. There’s really little incentive for companies to build New gas plants.

spot on

[Bubba]

Well, no that's not really how it works.

The power plants referred to below as "peakers" are designed to be fast-start, fast-response units that can produce power at a moment's notice in response to unforseen changes in demand or unplanned system failures. They can quickly provide frequency modulation to prevent brownouts or spikes.

Peakers are usually NOT economical to run for long periods of time because they burn fuel (almost always natural gas) much faster than other plants that are designed for efficiency but take several hours to generate power from a cold start. A stable, reliable grid system requires both types of generation.

Being a Peaker is no guarantee of profits. A lot of them lose money year after year until they make it up during rare periods of high demand and low supply.

Without peakers, we'd have frequent outages. The problem, in my opinion, is too much reliance on unreliable renewable sources like wind and solar.

Peak Generation would be the only generation Id build these days.The renewables keep our profits positive. We have 6 peaking units that will ramp from push of the start button to 50 MW in under 10 min.They are shorter outage times and cheaper to maintain.We keep a spare engine and can swap out and have back online in 2 to 3 days.

[91cavgt]

I must say, I wasn’t expecting this……..

ERCOT asks Texans to conserve power after 6 power facilities go offline Friday

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2022/05/13/ercot-asks-texans-to-conserve-power-after-6-power-facilities-go-offline-friday/

After six power facilities went offline Friday, the state’s main power grid operator is asking residents across the state to conserve power this weekend amid sweltering temperatures.