How is Ercot to blame?

[bloodstick]

Saw a short report on news this morning Galveston County electricity was shut down purposefully for days resulting in two deaths, according to the medical examiner. Two (i assume elderly people) froze to death. Federal judge and DA want to know who gave the order.

Heads need to roll.


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[Pstraw]

I would have thought that the people at ERCOT could read a weather forecast like any of us can, to 'know' that this situation was going to be bad. Having available generating capability sitting idle instead of bringing it online 'in case' sits squarely on their shoulders as that is what they are supposed to be doing.
I'm not at all against solar or wind power. I think they have put too much confidence in it. This has been a good test to see just how reliable green energy is when the going gets tough.
I am thankful that this disaster wasn't as bad as it could have been. Wake up call to everybody.

[Man]

As we continue to shift to green energy so aggressively it will only get worse. This was a good wake up call for everyone to be prepared. Since the left controls nearly all the media, and true investigative journalism is all but non existent anymore..all we will continue to get going forward is spoon fed lies.

[Smeone]

It is really hard to decipher the facts and opinions. There are acute failures and long term strategic failures that need to be considered. The following is my opinion and pea brained understanding so take it with a grain of salt.

1) ERCOT EXEC board memeber are not residents of Texas and do not have to live with their decisions

2) Long term/strategic- ERCOT was the decider on increasing green energy that ultimately lead to the demise of coal facilities. Because of artificially propping up wind/solar via subsidies (some can operate breakeven at $0/unit) they made impossible for coal to operate competitively. Consumers have seen 0 reduction in cost due to subsidies.

3) long term- ERCOT opted to invest in wind/solar rather than winterizing fossil fuel based plants

4) ERCOT factored unreliable and un scalable wind/solar as a significant portion of Texas’ base power needs

5)ERCOT elected to cut power to areas of west Texas producing nat gas causing instrument failure that reduced natural gas capacity for the entire state that not only impacted those with electrical sourced heat but also nat gas furnace individuals.

6) ERCOT knew or should have known that the grid could not support the potential demand and should have sounded the alarm bells and encouraged rationing prior to the end of the weekend when things went from bad to worse

I agree with this mostly, but as I see it

ERCOT did not make the decisions what to invest in, but they did allow power generators to make those decisions (slight difference since ERCOT really makes no investments they oversee them)

ERCOT allowed unheated wind generators to be installed and ignored that

ERCOT did not address the events from 2011 strongly enough....I will say that apparently there were not major issues with power plants freezing up this time unlike in 2011, but in my opinion they did not dig further back into the entire chain of production to look at other potential issues like natural gas production

the issue there is gas production and transport is outside of ERCOT it is Railroad Commission, but in my opinion a proactive agency would look at potential fuel supply issues and work with other agencies to investigate and address them

since 2018 (so well after 2011) enough coal plants have been taken offline in Texas to supply over 3 million HOMES (not people, but HOMES) so that is about 7.5 million people

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Texas#Coal_and_Lignite

Gibbons Creek Grimes County 30°37′9″N 96°4′54″W 453 [12][14] Closed in 2018

this plant is being talked about to reopen for this summer to east blackout potential....I am not sure how long it would take to get it online with short notice, but there it is.....sitting doing nothing....but Gibbons Creek is very small

Big Brown Freestone County 31°49′14″N 96°03′22″W 1,186 2018

J.T. Deely Bexar County 29°18′25″N 98°19′12″W 932 2018

Monticello Titus County 33°05′28″N 95°02′17″W 1,980 2018

Oklaunion Wilbarger County 34°4′57″N 99°10′34″W 650 2020

Sandow Milam County 30°33′51″N 97°03′50″W 1,252 2018

in an article about the Monticello plant closing they said it supplied 940,000 HOMES (not people, but homes so 2.5 people per home)

you do the math on it and the others and that is over 3 million homes and 7.5 million people

there are two other coal plants in east Texas that are shutting (one) or converting to natural gas (the other)

to be clear it was the US EPA that made it to where it was easier and cheaper to close a coal plant than upgrade the emissions.....but there is a chance that ERCOT could have mandated the upgrades (or the PUC)

as I stated in another thread coal allows weeks of cheap and SAFE storage of fuel right at the plant.....coal is not used for residential heat or cooking......coal comes on trains not in a pipeline

so coal is a fuel that gives elasticity and back up to a system instead of just building more natural gas plants and then having more natural gas plants go offline when there are supply issues

coal also does not flux in spot price at nearly the rate that natural gas does and it is CHEAP as a fuel once you get past the upgrades to meet EPA regulations (at this point i am not sure that the EPA allows coal to meet those regulations though they simply want coal GONE)

the good news to that is there are several coal plants scheduled to go offline in Illinois alone and other place in the midwest over the next year or two.......so this event is coming to them soon most likely more frequently and summer and winter and on a larger scale because of their larger power grids serving many states......nothing to cheer for, but people get what they vote for so their time is almost certainly coming and in worse ways

it is extremely hard if not impossible (and very expensive is possible) to make a natural gas system that would be as close to being as reliable as a pile of coal next to a power plant that will last weeks

storage is impossible...look at the regulations for the LNG export facilities they teat then the same as a port with a nuclear sub is in post when there is a LNG ship loading and the rest of the time there are still large areas of land that are exclusion zones from any building or general human activities (nature preserves now).....so large scale natural gas storage at the power plant is not possible

ERCOT should have forced coal to be viable, they should have looked at heated windmill mandates, they should have looked further into the chain of "supply" and the issues with natural gas flow during extreme cold and then worked with the RRC if possible

but generally that requires getting politicians to push back against the feds, it drives up fixed cost, and it requires looking at extreme events that might happen once every 10 to 20 years or more and asking all involved to give an honest answer about what would happen to their piece of the pie if worse came to worst......and generally we do not do that in the USA even in Texas

but if we as individuals look at the bigger picture and do not simply react towards one single thing (like wind and solar) and instead bring a larger picture argument to our politicians we can change that instead of having them do what seems cheap, easy, and expedient

[DosToros]

For what its worth I just looked up my home bill in Tulsa, my brother-in-laws bill in Fayetteville, Arkansas and my bill in Texas at my ranch and I am paying almost double per kWh in Texas. About the same in Arkansas and Oklahoma within a penny kwh.

[Smeone]

This !!

We allowed the Feds and ERCOT to lead us to renewable and apparently neither the State of Texas nor ERCOT managed or try to facilitate or provide a means for the Coal Plants to make the switch to either NG or Clean.




Research Shows The Following Power Plants Closed in 2018 alone:

Big Brown in Freestone County
JT Deely in Bexar County
Monticello in Titus County
OklaUnion - Wilbarger County (2020)
Sandow - Milam County
Gibbons Creek - Grimes Counnty

Also Scheduled to Close Over Next Few Years: Coleto Creek, Pirkey, Tolk.

Defunct Because Not Renovated: Eagle Mountain, Paint Creek, and PH Robinson

=============

NOT ONE OF THE 121 COAL PLANTS CONVERTED IN US REFERENCED BELOW WERE IN TEXAS !

ERCOT AND THE STATE OF TEXAS SHOULD HAVE FACILITATED THE CHANGE RATHER THAN ALLOWING THEM TO SHUT DOWN.
================

"According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 121 U.S. coal-fired power plants were repurposed to burn other types of fuels between 2011 and 2019, 103 of which were converted to or replaced by natural gas-fired plants. At the end of 2010, 316.8 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity existed in the United States, but by the end of 2019, 49.2 GW of that amount was retired, 14.3 GW had the boiler converted to burn natural gas, and 15.3 GW was replaced with natural gas combined cycle. The decision for plants to switch from coal to natural gas was driven by stricter emission standards, low natural gas prices, and more efficient new natural gas turbine technology.

Two different methods are used to switch coal-fired plants to natural gas. The first method is to retire the coal-fired plant and replace it with a new natural gas-fired combined-cycle (NGCC) plant. The second method is to convert the boiler of a coal-fired steam plant to burn other types of fuel, such as natural gas.

Between 2011 and 2019, owners of 17 coal-fired plants adopted the first method, replacing old coal-fired power plants with new NGCC plants. The new NGCC plants have a total generating capacity of 15.3 GW, 94% more than the 7.9 GW capacity of the coal-fired power plants they replaced. The increase in capacity is largely a result of the advanced turbine technology installed in NGCC plants."

==========
If my research is incorrect, please update as I was relying on Government Documentation and Gov. Web Information - which we all know can be misleading or incorrect.

converting coal to natural gas is not the answer for an extreme winter event like this

natural gas is the ultimate "just in time" delivery system

natural gas systems are highly inelastic and more importantly the elasticity they have is to ship less they cannot magically ship over capacity

natural gas has massive spot price jumps unlike coal

it is massively expensive and for all practical (and impractical) purposes not possible to store natural gas at the power plant

natural gas sees increased demand from residential users for heat and cooking in extreme winter events

natural gas pipelines generally flow one way or it takes great effort to flow them another way......even then they do not have redundant routing unlike your city water where a pipe gets cut and they can turn a few valves and a few homes might not have water, but the rest still get water that just flows a different way

or like the internet where Elmer Wayne digs up a fiber bundle and the internet traffic just takes a different route

it is impracticable to have a natural gas distribution system that would allow flow even to larger end users from multiple directions in case there is a break in a line or a line has an issue.....not to mention issues with a collector plant or freezing at the well head in a large field

putting more eggs in the same basket that you just had major issues with (natural gas) is not the answer and the answer to bullet proof the natural gas system is simply not practical IMO

it is much more practical to make coal cleaner and then have another major fuel (along with natural gas and nuclear) for major power supplies

a fuel that comes on a train not a pipeline or highway

a fuel that can be easily stored at the power plant

a fuel that is not in demand at the residential level for heat or cooking

a fuel that does not have massive spot price increases

more natural gas plants or conversion to natural gas from coal is just building for a bigger issue down the road and more than likely in the next 3 to 5 years the midwest will show us this in major ways probably more than one time a year

[Killer]

ERCOT= Electric RELIABILTY Council of Texas

Did this seem like a reliable electric plan to you? They oversee the generation. This event was caused by lack of generation period!

Their are a lot of people talking about this that do not know what they are talking about.

[eastex56]

I retired in 2017 from working about 20 years in an 800 MW combined cycle power plant. Prior to that I spent 24 years in a ChlorAlkali plant with the last 14 years in power generation, electrical distribution. I learned a few things along the way. Regardless of the fuel source, all power plants in Texas battle heat dissipation in the summer in order to achieve maximum generation. So, we build them pretty much wide open to the elements. Ok, when a severe freeze comes along, it is very difficult to ensure that every transmitter, impulse line, level, pressure, or flow indicator stays fully functional in subzero conditions. In colder climates, these same facilities are normally built inside of buildings that help insulate critical instrumentation and equipment against freezing. As far as I know, whether it is coal fired, natural gas fired, wood fired (yes, wood!), trash fired, or nuclear powered, they all require water for either making steam or heat exchange (cooling water). Y'all all know what is going to happen to those cooling towers, water pumps, valves, fans, etc. when it stays below freezing for long periods of time; they begin to fail. Is TOUGH to operate one of these plants reliably in Texas in subzero conditions for extended amounts of time. They just aren't built to do it. Even newer facilities with great heat tracing and insulation just don't get the maintenance required to keep them 100% functional in ALL conditions. Generally it only takes a few critical transmitters to fail and the whole plant comes off line. I have to believe that we have adequate generation capability during normal conditions but when the weather gets like this all bets are off. It will take a PARADIGM SHIFT in the design, implementation, and maintenance of these facilities to make them viable in every weather situation. I would really like to know the percentage of generators across the state failed to start or tripped off line due to being inadequately prepared for the weather conditions. It doesn't matter if ERCOT called on every generator in the state to come on line if only a handful could respond. As a side note, this is what is termed 'outage season' for most generators. They schedule their major outages (for equipment repair/rebuild) to coincide with cool weather because demand is usually lower and the economic impact to them due to lost revenue is less. There might have been a good number of units unavailable because they were scattered across the slab being rebuilt. At the end of the day I personally don't blame ERCOT. But, this is just my opinion.

[SabineHunter]

ERCOT= Electric RELIABILTY Council of Texas

Did this seem like a reliable electric plan to you? They oversee the generation. This event was caused by lack of generation period!

Their are a lot of people talking about this that do not know what they are talking about.

I agree 100%. Let's make sure they put the 'RELIABLE' back in ERCOT.

[Bryan11]

The following was posted on Facebook by a guy I know who has been involved in the power industry for over 45 years:

We may have been closer to an ERCOT wide blackout than has been reported. I had heard that coal plants tripping off line was an issue. While I am not privy to the list of plants that tripped, I did reach out to some folks in the industry that might have some info. I had a friend tell me that their coal plant tripped off line because of low frequency (usually set around 95% of 60 hertz). This happens to protect the generator from damage and is done automatically with no human intervention. This only happens when there is a lot more load in the system (i.e. ERCOT) than available generation to meet it. If all that is true, we should be thanking ERCOT for pulling our cart out of the ditch and saving our bacon (so to speak).

Soon after the grid (a term referring to the transmission and distribution power lines that bring power from the generator to the end use customer) began to experience problems, ERCOT began to issue load interruption orders. Almost immediately, wind and solar power was identified by some as the problem. While renewables may have been a contributing factor to the problem, they do not appear to be the primary cause.

I do believe that subsidies for renewables are a real issue in our society. Subsidies artificially incent certain actions and investments to obtain an end. While renewables are beneficial and have a place in out electric system, we must fully understand and balance the detriments to the electric system reliability as well as the benefits to the environment. Contrary to the Governor's assertion that we (Texans) have made those calls, at best I would say that government in the form of the legislature, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) and special interest groups have made or influenced where we are today in ERCOT with renewables.

So many water plants were tripped of line due to rolling brownouts. Many Texans were without (and are still without) water because of a supply issue and not because their pipes had busted. ERCOT does not make those calls, your local transmission provider does. ERCOT issues an order to transmission companies to reduce a certain amount of load and how to do it is the transmission company's decision, not ERCOT's. My personal opinion is that water supply is an essential service and should have some form of uninterruptible power source to keep it available at all times. I hope this becomes and issue at the forefront of the discussions from the recent events.

Another major contributor to our calamity was that numerous gas plants tripped off line due to low gas pressure which is a gas supply problem and not a gas plant or ERCOT problem. ERCOT does not regulate or control natural gas pipelines. The Texas Railroad Commission does.

While it seems ERCOT was doing what they should have been doing in these cases, the fact is that there are other issues where ERCOT is most likely culpable. I have not personally seen the list of plants that were not available because they were in outage which means they were down to do routine maintenance. I have heard there were a significant number of plants unavailable due to planned outages which ERCOT has to approve those. If this proves to be accurate, then this could have been a major contributor and ERCOT certainly had influence if not control over that.

You are pretty spot on. There was roughly 12-15K MW worth of generation doing planned outages during this weather event that was approved by ERCOT.

[batmaninja]

How is Ercot to blame?

How do we "keep" electricty reserves?


That is my whole point. I am not versed on the problem, but it seems that SUPPLY of energy was the problem, and ERCOT had to disperse a limited supply with PEAK demand. If they had not shot off parts of the grid, the whole grid could have collapsed (based on what I read :

Just looking at the supply and demand side, their numbers were wrong.

Some bean counter got paid lots of money and averaged out energy use and temperatures then came up with a fancy looking model upon which big decisions got made. Just like the flood models, quarantine for 2 weeks, too big to fail, etc. The models were wrong and it greatly impacted people. Oh poop plans should have been in place, several layers really.

I think the better question is - Why not blame the energy reliability council, when energy wasn’t reliable?


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[rtp]

Our govt leaders from top to bottom, left to right, are mostly useless. The same people who look for them to provide for us also want the government to be in charge of our health. I shudder at the thought.


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[Burnadell]

Just looking at the supply and demand side, their numbers were wrong.

Some bean counter got paid lots of money and averaged out energy use and temperatures then came up with a fancy looking model upon which big decisions got made. Just like the flood models, quarantine for 2 weeks, too big to fail, etc. The models were wrong and it greatly impacted people. Oh poop plans should have been in place, several layers really.

I think the better question is - Why not blame the energy reliability council, when energy wasn’t reliable?


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You dodged my question. I asked you how we can "store" electric reserves. We can't. Especially for a possible once in a century catastopic winter storm that deposited snow on the beaches of Galveston.

C'mon maaaaan! This was a huge calamity of a winter storm that created unprecedented demand on a system that was not designed for the once in a lifetime sustained cold snap.

Again, if our electric bills increased 40-50% so they could buildout a generation system that might be needed once...or twice in our lifetime, we would all be revolting with multiple threads (as we have now) complaining that the idiots in charge are raping us.

[Burnadell]

ERCOT= Electric RELIABILTY Council of Texas

Did this seem like a reliable electric plan to you? They oversee the generation. This event was caused by lack of generation period!

Their are a lot of people talking about this that do not know what they are talking about.

Exactly...and who is responsible?

Many of us complain about Democratic leadership, but Republicans have been in control of Texas for quite some time.

For the record, I have voted Republican for many years, so don't anybody try to paint me otherwise. I am just pointing out the hypocrisy and useless criticism for a historic weather event that was not planned for, and likely would have been severely criticized by TBH members if our utility bills increased to buildout the backup systems that might never again be needed in our lifetime. We, on TBH, just like to lash out and blame whomever seems convenient at the time without fully understanding the issues.

[batmaninja]

Once in who’s life time

Others already answered, money. Pay before, pay after, pay along the way, the effects are the same - guys at the top make decisions to help themselves.

Tell me who I should be mad at for downtown Houston being lit up while the rest of the city was dark?


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