Don't think there is any way of knowing this. I have been picked with as little as 2 points in a category. When I got picked for the James Daughtry, I think I had 5 points in...got to talking to a fellow hunter and he had to wait 12 years before getting selected in that category. But you won't get drawn 100% of the times you don't apply. I apply to as many as I can.
I've applied over the last twelve years and have been drawn twice for GDE, once for Management deer, once for mule deer, once for exotic archery, three times for archery deer, once for archery mule deer, twice for turkey, and twice for javi. My kids both shot their first deer a couple of years ago on youth hunts.
My BIL and I got drawn for Richland GDE the first year that we applied for hunts.
I've been applying for 5 years be drawn once. It was fun to hunt a new place. I got skunked my dad got a doe. Cheap and if you don't get drawn at least it's like a donation to TPWD
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