Hey Oilfield Guys!!

[ladrones]

http://www.oilfieldfamilies.com/pipeline-explosion-in-jalnm-1-dead/

The chatter is it was a surface detonation. Wireline company.

[BowOnly81]

No. That was rude.

Right now surplus production ranges from roughly 1.5-2 million barrels per day. That is an extremely large surplus. It is not going to go away overnight. Prices will not start creeping up until supply meets demand. Production should start inching down as people lay down all of these rigs. Also, demand should start creeping up because of the lower price. I don't see this happening for 1-2 years.

I think we will see a sharp decrease in oil prices in approximately September. That is when it is forecast for storage capacity to be full (at current rates).

Of course, no one has a crystal ball so no one can say. These are just my thoughts after reading quite a bit on the subject.

What are your thoughts on it Big Iron?

CNBC is saying if the over supply continues at this rate, Cushing's inventory will be full by April. So I'd say may or june is when well see a big drop in price and a lot more lay offs. It's gonna take a long time (year minimum) to use up those inventories. Like many are thinking, the worst will be here in the next few months.

[kyle1974]

Almost half the rigs in North America have been stacked. The decline curve on many of these wells is steep and production values are going to start falling off soon.

You can't have a rate stay the same when half the rigs are stacked.

[willwork04]

Classy as always...







Pretty legitimate concerns here. Deep water is a different animal all together. The cost of drilling out there is HUGE. You're talking about rigs with day rates well over $1million vs rigs on land that run anywhere from $12,000-30,000 a day. The budgets offshore are tremendous for every aspect. When the expense is that high, the budgets are set aside often times years before the project is started. What all of that means is off shore won't slow down until well into this down turn.

Correct. I work in deepwater now. These projects take years to plan and execute. They cannot do all of their planning off of current commodity prices. They have to look far down the road, which is tough because no one has a crystal ball.

Hopefully prices are back up within 1-2 years and won't affect deepwater projects very much.

[txjustin]

Almost half the rigs in North America have been stacked. The decline curve on many of these wells is steep and production values are going to start falling off soon.

You can't have a rate stay the same when half the rigs are stacked.

This I agree with. Supply (oversupply I should say) should begin tapering off in the 2nd half of the year. I think by the end of the year we should see a steady increase in prices.
The thing that could absolutely crush oil prices, and already is, is the strength of the dollar.

[willwork04]

This I agree with. Supply (oversupply I should say) should begin tapering off in the 2nd half of the year. I think by the end of the year we should see a steady increase in prices.
The thing that could absolutely crush oil prices, and already is, is the strength of the dollar.

The strength of the dollar is definitely something to factor in. It is also not being talked about very much, but I believe it should be.

The question is -- when will production meet demand? All estimates at this point. I agree production will start to slow down at some point. But, there are some major deepwater projects projected to come online this year and they have the ability to offset decline from the shale players. Will they? That is another question.

But, for point of reference, ExxonMobil expects to INCREASE production in 2015....

[JMalin]

Almost half the rigs in North America have been stacked. The decline curve on many of these wells is steep and production values are going to start falling off soon.

You can't have a rate stay the same when half the rigs are stacked.

The existing rigs are more efficient than those that have been stacked and are drilling in the best areas for production. I wouldn't expect production to fall that much. supply issues aren't going away this year.

[Legdog]

[TXHUNT3R]

Just got word our salaries are being cut next week. Prayers for all, certainly not complaining and thankful to still be holding on.

[jooger17]

The existing rigs are more efficient than those that have been stacked and are drilling in the best areas for production. I wouldn't expect production to fall that much. supply issues aren't going away this year.

You couldn't possibly be more wrong. The rig I've been following since September was drilling 18,000' wells in 12-15 days about 50 miles east of where we are now. The wells we are on now are about the same depth and taking 25-35 days to drill and aren't as productive. The last one we drilled was logged and the engineer told us it was essentially a dry hole. It would produce but wasn't free flowing. They might break even on that well.

The rig we were on was about 8 years old. They stacked the rig and put all of those guys on this brand new one that had only drilled one well before it was stacked. This rig has been nothing but problematic, downtime on top of downtime. Since then 80% of the crews has either been bumped back or let go. The best driller on the rig was bumped back this hitch and replaced buy a guy that can't spell driller.

There is no "best of the best" for drilling contractors anymore. For some reason unknown to me, they keep a guy around simply due to time with the company. You put me with a 20 year veteran directional driller and I'll smoke him every single day simply because I still have the drive and something to prove. After you've been around 20 years you're going through the motions. I see it every single day.

All of that was basically said to once again show you how little you really know about what's being discussed in this thread.

[JTRichardson]

you couldn't possibly be more wrong. The rig i've been following since september was drilling 18,000' wells in 12-15 days about 50 miles east of where we are now. The wells we are on now are about the same depth and taking 25-35 days to drill and aren't as productive. The last one we drilled was logged and the engineer told us it was essentially a dry hole. It would produce but wasn't free flowing. They might break even on that well.

The rig we were on was about 8 years old. They stacked the rig and put all of those guys on this brand new one that had only drilled one well before it was stacked. This rig has been nothing but problematic, downtime on top of downtime. Since then 80% of the crews has either been bumped back or let go. The best driller on the rig was bumped back this hitch and replaced buy a guy that can't spell driller.

There is no "best of the best" for drilling contractors anymore. For some reason unknown to me, they keep a guy around simply due to time with the company. You put me with a 20 year veteran directional driller and i'll smoke him every single day simply because i still have the drive and something to prove. After you've been around 20 years you're going through the motions. I see it every single day.

All of that was basically said to once again show you how little you really know about what's being discussed in this thread anything.

fify

[TXHUNT3R]

You couldn't possibly be more wrong. The rig I've been following since September was drilling 18,000' wells in 12-15 days about 50 miles east of where we are now. The wells we are on now are about the same depth and taking 25-35 days to drill and aren't as productive. The last one we drilled was logged and the engineer told us it was essentially a dry hole. It would produce but wasn't free flowing. They might break even on that well.

The rig we were on was about 8 years old. They stacked the rig and put all of those guys on this brand new one that had only drilled one well before it was stacked. This rig has been nothing but problematic, downtime on top of downtime. Since then 80% of the crews has either been bumped back or let go. The best driller on the rig was bumped back this hitch and replaced buy a guy that can't spell driller.

There is no "best of the best" for drilling contractors anymore. For some reason unknown to me, they keep a guy around simply due to time with the company. You put me with a 20 year veteran directional driller and I'll smoke him every single day simply because I still have the drive and something to prove. After you've been around 20 years you're going through the motions. I see it every single day.

All of that was basically said to once again show you how little you really know about what's being discussed in this thread.

But what could you possibly know...

[JMalin]

You couldn't possibly be more wrong. The rig I've been following since September was drilling 18,000' wells in 12-15 days about 50 miles east of where we are now. The wells we are on now are about the same depth and taking 25-35 days to drill and aren't as productive. The last one we drilled was logged and the engineer told us it was essentially a dry hole. It would produce but wasn't free flowing. They might break even on that well.

The rig we were on was about 8 years old. They stacked the rig and put all of those guys on this brand new one that had only drilled one well before it was stacked. This rig has been nothing but problematic, downtime on top of downtime. Since then 80% of the crews has either been bumped back or let go. The best driller on the rig was bumped back this hitch and replaced buy a guy that can't spell driller.

There is no "best of the best" for drilling contractors anymore. For some reason unknown to me, they keep a guy around simply due to time with the company. You put me with a 20 year veteran directional driller and I'll smoke him every single day simply because I still have the drive and something to prove. After you've been around 20 years you're going through the motions. I see it every single day.

All of that was basically said to once again show you how little you really know about what's being discussed in this thread.

I didn't realize your anecdotal experience mirrored that of the entire drilling industry. I stand corrected

[willwork04]

fify

hahahhaa. Well done

[miket]

I know this doesnt necessarily have anything to do with the oilfield but....

I am not a violent person. But every once in a while I meet or converse ( directly or indirectly ) with someone and I come to the realization that some people are such idiots, and so deluded as to their own intellegence, and though it wont help, need to be kicked repeatedly in the face.