Watching the Tropics

[scotty]

What was the name of that movie? Oh yeah, Debbie does Dallas! Come on girl, go west.

[Coach W]

What was the name of that movie? Oh yeah, Debbie does Dallas! Come on girl, go west.

Unfortunately Debbie did a whole lot of things!

Iowa, College, Em All, Dishes, BUT she did seem to keep COMING back to Dallas...

Couldnt help it....

As Clevelland Brown on the Family Guy would say "Thats Just Nasty"

Yall keep us informed on which way debbie decides to swing.

[Atfulldraw]

looking better.....this thing has the potential to stall out and gain strength in a few days.

[scotty]

Unfortunately Debbie did a whole lot of things!

Iowa, College, Em All, Dishes, BUT she did seem to keep COMING back to Dallas...

Couldnt help it....

As Clevelland Brown on the Family Guy would say "Thats Just Nasty"

Yall keep us informed on which way debbie decides to swing.

[lilavidhunter]

Cant wait to get on that cruise boat tomorrow.

[waterdog]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGqI0naQjNs"]Tropical TIdbit for Saturday, June 23rd, 2012 - YouTube[/ame]

[captainsling]

That is some good info Waterdog! Sounds like S Texas will get some much needed rain! Let's hope!

[wyliescrib]

that is great info waterdog... thanks... lets hope it carries out the way he sees it...

[Bonesplitter]

I would not rule out anything along the Tx coast just yet. If the ridge sldes northeast as it quite possibly may, Debby could very well take a more northerly track than the NHC forecast. Anywhere in this cone has potential for landfall at this point.

[kfd82]

Our 4 PM update:

Current Position: 26.0N 87.0W
Geographic Reference: 213 NM south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi
Winds: 40 kts gusting to 50 kts
Movement: North at 2 kts
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (2 size / 1 intensity)
Peak Hurricane Severity Index: 7 (4 size / 3 intensity)
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Changes from the Previous Forecast
The overall forecast philosophy has not changed.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 11 already has tropical storm force winds on its eastern side and the National Hurricane Center will soon upgrade it to Tropical Storm Debby. The storm will track to the north to north-northwest over the next 48 hours or so. We think the most likely track scenario will take it to the west Tuesday through Thursday. This would bring it ashore in Texas on Wednesday. The track confidence is about average through the first 48 hours, but quite low beyond then.
Organization of the disturbance has continued to increase, though it has been battling some westerly wind shear. The shear should decrease and the organization should improve in 24 to 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, we expect slow strengthening and it could be a very strong tropical storm or possibly a Category 1 hurricane by landfall on Wednesday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is below average.

And

Tropical Disturbance 11 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby by the National Hurricane Center. At 4PM CDT, the center of Debby was located near 26.1N / 87.2W. A recon plane inside Debby has found sustained winds to 45 kts in the heavy squalls east of the center. Debby is moving to the north at 2-3 mph.

[18ncs]

Take all you want and then pass it along to the East, thank you very much..

[waterdog]

todays video update from http://28storms.com/

[waterdog]

hey bonessplitter @ weather guys? there now picking up 2 surface lows!!! one is NE of the hurricane center according to the hurricane hunters. is this is y the models keep saying both east and west? could we have two? i guessing over night will tell us. little deb is one messup lady! thanks guys

[Bonesplitter]

hey bonessplitter @ weather guys? there now picking up 2 surface lows!!! one is NE of the hurricane center according to the hurricane hunters. is this is y the models keep saying both east and west? could we have two? i guessing over night will tell us. little deb is one messup lady! thanks guys

Im not real sure. I believe its just very unorganized. The models have shown two seperate lows for several days though. I mentioned that a couple days ago but shook it off as the weaker of the two being dominated by the stronger system. Its possible that the strong thunderstorms firing off to the east of the center are creating lower pressure gradients. In some of the earlier GFS model runs you could clearly see a weaker low going into south Tx while the stronger one cutting across Florida. I think its still a waiting game and am wo.dering if the tracks shift east. Maybe not completely to Florida but that is still a possibility. Appears we have a few more days of it sitting in the gulf.

[waterdog]

thanks bonesplitter! i keep thinking east to? who knows