Watching the Tropics

[Bonesplitter]

10am NHC shifted. As suspected

[Smart]

Well craaaap

[Cody_560]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201204_model_zoom.gif

Still a little hope

[Cody_560]

[ATTACH]354735[/ATTACH]

[Cody_560]

This is from the forecaster discussion:

it is a very difficult and highly uncertain forecast this morning.
Debby has been moving very slowly toward the northeast...040 at 3
knots...while the wind radii have been expanding in the eastern
semicircle. This has prompted additional tropical storm warnings
and watches for portions of the Florida coast.
Debby continues to be sheared with most of the thunderstorm activity
north and east of the center. This shear is expected to continue
for the next day or so...although some decrease in the shear is
possible after that...particularly if the ECMWF verifies. The
official forecast is a little less aggressive than the previous
forecast...but remains above most of the explicit intensity
guidance.
The track forecast is even more complex. The GFS insists on a track
toward the northeast as Debby becomes embedded within a large
mid-latitude trough. However...the ECMWF and the HWRF build a ridge
to the north of Debby and forecast a westward track. Given the
westward turn inherited from the previous forecast...as well as the
historical strong record of the ECMWF...the new official forecast
moves Debby initially a little bit to the northeast to reflect
current trends but then turns the cyclone back toward the west or
west-northwest in 24 to 36 hours. A majority of the GFS ensemble
members now are consistent with the deterministic run...which was
not the case yesterday...making a stronger case for the eastward
solution. We must be ready to make a change of the forecast track
at any time.


Forecast positions and Max winds

init 24/1500z 28.0n 86.2w 50 kt 60 mph
12h 25/0000z 28.5n 85.8w 50 kt 60 mph
24h 25/1200z 28.5n 85.8w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 26/0000z 28.5n 86.2w 55 kt 65 mph
48h 26/1200z 28.7n 87.0w 60 kt 70 mph
72h 27/1200z 29.0n 88.4w 65 kt 75 mph
96h 28/1200z 29.5n 90.5w 45 kt 50 mph
120h 29/1200z 30.0n 91.5w 30 kt 35 mph

$$
forecaster Avila



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[GarGuy]

What happened to the low off the Texas coast???

[brshcntryhntr]

Well craaaap

X2

[Bonesplitter]

What happened to the low off the Texas coast???

I believe the photo you saw was of a computer model showing two seperate low's. That was not a current event, yet a computer generated scenario.

[Bonesplitter]

I just ran the NAM model and...wow. Two lows perfectly split with one into Fla and another into STX. Where that pulling your hair out smiley??

Im assuming you are meaning this...

[Bonesplitter]

I feel pretty confident this storm will make landfall in Florida. Like 97% confident.

[Coach W]

Hello 105 degree temps, goodbye monsoon rains.

Welcome to Texas again folks.

[Mark44]

she's got to come to Texas. I'm encouraged by the number of models now sending her west but still nervous she'll go to Florida.

[Cuatro361]

Well I quess my Baffin trip is still A GO...

[brshcntryhntr]

I feel pretty confident this storm will make landfall in Florida. Like 97% confident.

Looks like it. I guess a week watching it rain from my balcony in Destin will still beat 100 degree heat back home. I imagine I will drive through some weather in morning.

[Swampa]

I hope my week of fishingout of Galveston isnt destroyed.