Draw Hunts

[jshouse]

I don't think it's weighted towards new applicants. From what it sounds like when people get 5+ preference points they tend to only put in for the well known and sought after hunts. These have very low odds of drawing. New people put in for everything. This is my second year. I put in for literally everything each year. I drew 6 hunts this year, but the draws were mostly high percentage draws.

Also, preference points are basically useless. If 1,000 people get in a drawing and you have 10 points and everyone else has 1 you go from a .1% to a 1% chance. It's a better chance but still very low. Considering in reality a lot of the other people will have more than 1 preference point it makes the chance even lower.

i agree here. although i still get mad when i dont draw, mainly for my boys, i usually only put in for low odd hunts with a chance at a trophy.

[Army of Dad]

Going in as a group is almost always better. If one of you is picked then the group is picked. If there are four of you in a group it multiplies your chances of getting picked by 4.



If there are only 4 spots available then someone in your group would need to be the first one picked. In that scenario your odds are just a little less than everyone else.



You have 4 times the chance of getting picked, but your only going after one specific (the specific part is the only reason the odds are less) spot where everyone else is going for 1 of four spots.



If there are 6 spots available your odds are better than a single applicant. You have 3 specific spots you can draw at a higher rate of drawing than a single applicant.



Basically, a group always has better odds as long as there are more spots available than whats on the group.



This was super quick math so I coudl be wrong.

I don’t think that’s how they draw. They average the points from your group. Your group gets four chances if you have four points, not 16 chances (four for each of the four people). If there are only three available slots left when that group of four is drawn it’s kicked out and another application is drawn until they get the correct amount of hunters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thisisbeer]

I don’t think that’s how they draw. They average the points from your group. Your group gets four chances if you have four points, not 16 chances (four for each of the four people). If there are only three available slots left when that group of four is drawn it’s kicked out and another application is drawn until they get the correct amount of hunters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm going off of an email someone posted from TPWD a while back. Maybe i'm misremembering it. All applicants enter the pool separately with the average number of preference points. If one of them get picked, they all get picked.

[justletmein]

^that's the way I understood it, the "group average" is just a number. So if Joe has 2 PP's and Henry has 4 PP's the group average is 3 but it's just for display. Joe has 2 chances in the draw and Henry has 4 chances, if either get drawn the other is automagically tacked on since they're a group. If there's only 1 spot available though, then they both get passed.

[jnd1959]

^that's the way I understood it, the "group average" is just a number. So if Joe has 2 PP's and Henry has 4 PP's the group average is 3 but it's just for display. Joe has 2 chances in the draw and Henry has 4 chances, if either get drawn the other is automagically tacked on since they're a group. If there's only 1 spot available though, then they both get passed.

If that is the way it is selected, then a group has a definite advantage because instead of an average 3 chances the group has six chances and the average means nothing. All other states, that I am aware of, have a group leader and the points are assigned to that group leader based on either the lowest point holder (Colorado) or an average (Wyoming). Only the group leader is entered in the draw as the group. Based on the above calculation, if a group of four with 30 points apply as a group for a draw with at least 4 positions available, their chances are 130 out of the total points, not 30. Thus, for all draws with more than a few positions available, a group will increase its points to the group total and have an advantage. The proper way to handle a group is to average the points and assign to one member of the group or assign the average to a "group" as a draw option. In effect, a group creates a new applicant called "group A" and none of the individuals are in the draw.

[justletmein]

120, but yeah I agree with you on the proper way to do it. I don't think TPWD's system is very proper though. LOL

[LVhunter09]

We did really well this year I drew a antlerless hunt in San Angelo and my little brother drew antlerless at the Chap and either sex at Colorado bend and javelina at the chap
Before theses hunts I drew archery at the chap and Aransas refuge and he has drawn either sex at the chap and antlerless at the chap and we have been applying for 5 years



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CTR0022]

For yall that drew spring Turkey, how many ppl did you have. I've got 5 and put in for 6 hunts. Was really hoping I would have drawn this year.

[jnd1959]

120, but yeah I agree with you on the proper way to do it. I don't think TPWD's system is very proper though. LOL

Yep, 120. Duh. Good thing I'm an accountant and don't have to rely numbers.

[OldRiverRat]

If that is the way it is selected, then a group has a definite advantage because instead of an average 3 chances the group has six chances and the average means nothing. All other states, that I am aware of, have a group leader and the points are assigned to that group leader based on either the lowest point holder (Colorado) or an average (Wyoming). Only the group leader is entered in the draw as the group. Based on the above calculation, if a group of four with 30 points apply as a group for a draw with at least 4 positions available, their chances are 130 out of the total points, not 30. Thus, for all draws with more than a few positions available, a group will increase its points to the group total and have an advantage. The proper way to handle a group is to average the points and assign to one member of the group or assign the average to a "group" as a draw option. In effect, a group creates a new applicant called "group A" and none of the individuals are in the draw.

I hope this is the way they do it. This is what seems fair


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Etxnoodler]

I don’t know where all these theories about how the draw works came from but the way the group applications work is.. they average the number of points of everybody in the group. The groups application number gets put in the draw that many times. There are two types of draws, number of permits, and number of groups. If your group puts in for a draw that has a certain number of permits and have 4 people in your group but there are only 3 permits left when they draw your group, they re draw. That draw selects the exact number of permits requested by WMA. If you put in for a hunt that draws a certain number of groups they draw that many applications whether there is one applicant on the application or 4. So if they want 4 groups they could end up with as few as 4 hunters or as many as 16.

[jnd1959]

I don’t know where all these theories about how the draw works came from but the way the group applications work is.. they average the number of points of everybody in the group. The groups application number gets put in the draw that many times. There are two types of draws, number of permits, and number of groups. If your group puts in for a draw that has a certain number of permits and have 4 people in your group but there are only 3 permits left when they draw your group, they re draw. That draw selects the exact number of permits requested by WMA. If you put in for a hunt that draws a certain number of groups they draw that many applications whether there is one applicant on the application or 4. So if they want 4 groups they could end up with as few as 4 hunters or as many as 16.

Good. This is the correct way. It still would be nice to see a breakdown of number of people by point total.

[J.B.]

Typically how long does it take for "Pending 2nd draw"?

[Army of Dad]

Typically how long does it take for "Pending 2nd draw"?

Up to 10 days. The people who are drawn have that long to accept/pay for permits. Once all drawn hunters accept that category closes so it might not take all 10 days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bossbowman]

I don’t know where all these theories about how the draw works came from but the way the group applications work is.. they average the number of points of everybody in the group. The groups application number gets put in the draw that many times. There are two types of draws, number of permits, and number of groups. If your group puts in for a draw that has a certain number of permits and have 4 people in your group but there are only 3 permits left when they draw your group, they re draw. That draw selects the exact number of permits requested by WMA. If you put in for a hunt that draws a certain number of groups they draw that many applications whether there is one applicant on the application or 4. So if they want 4 groups they could end up with as few as 4 hunters or as many as 16.

I've called tpwd draw people and this is exactly correct and why you have a better chance to draw as a single rather than a group, the larger your group the better chance your group will get passed over if drawn for one of the last few permits for a particular hunt too. The more people you have in your group is not more names in the hat, you will still just have a set # of preference points for the application like a single applicant. Rather if everyone in a group puts in separately as single that is more names in the hat.