Here is a write-up I started last year, just updated the numbers.
Here’s an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). I have been a participant in the draw system for 23 years now. In the descriptions below, ‘the change’ refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago (applying for multiple hunts within a category).
Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individual’s preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for ‘the good spots’) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). I’d always thought I was fairly unlucky in the drawn hunts (if you just look at numbers and percentages). But, over the last 23 years, I’ve gone on 19 hunts (12 drawn and 7 stand-by). That’s not too bad (83%).
In 23 years, I’ve been drawn 12 times (52% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 4 times after (133%).
In 23 years, I’ve applied for 268 total hunts (12/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 125 after (42/year).
Another way of looking at ‘success rate’ is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 3.2% post-change (4 of 125). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 3 years.
The most hunts I’ve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 3 (last year). Also drawn for 2 hunts in a year several years ago. The rest were only 1 hunt per year.
I’ve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 52 post-change. The longest I’ve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.
I’ve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 24 after the change (28 total different categories).
Of the 28 different categories I’ve applied for, I’ve only been drawn in 5 of them (for 23 different categories, I’ve never been selected).
I started applying in 1994, but didn’t get to carry a rifle on any drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).
In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.
Here’s a breakdown of individual hunt categories:
Archery Deer – I’ve applied in 18 years, 15 pre-change (drawn 5 times), 3 post-change (drawn 1).
Exotic – I’ve applied in 13 years, 10 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike – I’ve applied 14 years, 11 pre-change (never drawn), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Gun Deer Either Sex - I’ve applied in 23 years, 20 pre-change (drawn once), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Pronghorn - I’ve applied in 20 years, 17 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Spring Turkey - I’ve applied in 16 years, 13 pre-change (drawn twice), 3 post-change (not drawn).
Guided Exotic - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Guided Deer - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Private Lands Either Sex - I’ve applied 11 years, 9 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Bighorn Sheep - I’ve applied 7 years, 5 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Management - I’ve applied 11 years, 8 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Archery Exotic - I’ve applied 5 years, 3 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Feral Hog - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
Javelina - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change (never drawn), 1 post-change (drawn).
Archery Mule Deer - I’ve applied 9 years, 6 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Mule Deer - I’ve applied 10 years, 7 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Pronghorn - I’ve applied 6 years, 4 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - I’ve applied 5 years, 2 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Gemsbok - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Crossbow - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
Guided Oryx - I’ve applied 2 years, 1 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator Management - I’ve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
E-postcard archery deer- I’ve applied 2 years, post-change, and never been drawn.
E-postcard multispecies- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
E-postcard waterfowl/pheasant- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge Exotic- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge General Deer- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
Here’s an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). I have been a participant in the draw system for 23 years now. In the descriptions below, ‘the change’ refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago (applying for multiple hunts within a category).
Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individual’s preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for ‘the good spots’) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). I’d always thought I was fairly unlucky in the drawn hunts (if you just look at numbers and percentages). But, over the last 23 years, I’ve gone on 19 hunts (12 drawn and 7 stand-by). That’s not too bad (83%).
In 23 years, I’ve been drawn 12 times (52% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 4 times after (133%).
In 23 years, I’ve applied for 268 total hunts (12/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 125 after (42/year).
Another way of looking at ‘success rate’ is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 3.2% post-change (4 of 125). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 3 years.
The most hunts I’ve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 3 (last year). Also drawn for 2 hunts in a year several years ago. The rest were only 1 hunt per year.
I’ve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 52 post-change. The longest I’ve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.
I’ve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 24 after the change (28 total different categories).
Of the 28 different categories I’ve applied for, I’ve only been drawn in 5 of them (for 23 different categories, I’ve never been selected).
I started applying in 1994, but didn’t get to carry a rifle on any drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).
In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.
Here’s a breakdown of individual hunt categories:
Archery Deer – I’ve applied in 18 years, 15 pre-change (drawn 5 times), 3 post-change (drawn 1).
Exotic – I’ve applied in 13 years, 10 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike – I’ve applied 14 years, 11 pre-change (never drawn), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Gun Deer Either Sex - I’ve applied in 23 years, 20 pre-change (drawn once), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Pronghorn - I’ve applied in 20 years, 17 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Spring Turkey - I’ve applied in 16 years, 13 pre-change (drawn twice), 3 post-change (not drawn).
Guided Exotic - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Guided Deer - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Private Lands Either Sex - I’ve applied 11 years, 9 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Bighorn Sheep - I’ve applied 7 years, 5 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Management - I’ve applied 11 years, 8 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Archery Exotic - I’ve applied 5 years, 3 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Feral Hog - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
Javelina - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change (never drawn), 1 post-change (drawn).
Archery Mule Deer - I’ve applied 9 years, 6 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Mule Deer - I’ve applied 10 years, 7 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Pronghorn - I’ve applied 6 years, 4 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - I’ve applied 5 years, 2 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Gemsbok - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Crossbow - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
Guided Oryx - I’ve applied 2 years, 1 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator Management - I’ve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
E-postcard archery deer- I’ve applied 2 years, post-change, and never been drawn.
E-postcard multispecies- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
E-postcard waterfowl/pheasant- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge Exotic- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge General Deer- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
Comment