Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

[the-butcher]

I work for a major power company. We have several he told us in a call at 11 that they forcast landfall between port lavaca and rockport. They ghink its gonna stall

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He also said there is a small chance it rides the coastline

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[Tommyh]

so, once it makes landfall, the two highs are going to push it eastward up the coast line it looks?

[brymor31]

Anyone heard anything about storm surge potential?

[bdchorn]

Anyone heard anything about storm surge potential?

No, but seems like big concern is rain more than wind or storm surge

[1369]

Anyone heard anything about storm surge potential?

Here's one Aransas PD just sent out.

[marshhunter]

Anyone heard anything about storm surge potential?

Khou put this out earlier.. looks like 6'





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[-HIC-]

I am supposed to fly out of IAH on Sunday for work. Anyone know what that fiasco is going to be like, or what it takes to cancel the flights?

[brymor31]

Thanks for storm surge info. Headed to Corpus now to board up our house that's just across from Bob Hall Pier. Hope it doesn't flood too bad.

[woodsman]

Anyone hear any frain predictions from Frankie?

[Man]

Anyone hear any frain predictions from Frankie?

Checked...nothing from Frankie yet on this situation

[GarGuy]

Yea, the latest ECMWF run is nuts. Comes ashore just south of Corpus/Corpus on Saturday, around San Antonio/Austin on Sunday, back to Corpus on Monday, just offshore in the Gulf on Tuesday, and back ashore around the TX/LA line on Tuesday.

f that happens, Houston will have monsoon rain Friday through wed.

[hero_moneybags]

Won't sniff the gulf.

[rut-ro]

gonna be a gully washer

[TXHunter1089]

Wonder if shell sniff the gulf!

[ccbluewater]

Im currently getting boat of sling in Freeport, and trailering back to Cypress. Atleast if I need the boat to get around I'll have it! [emoji38]


3:00 PM CDT briefing from Jeff Lindner..

Rainfall:*

Widespread rainfall 10-15 inches across the entire region from the TX coast bend ENE to W/SW Louisiana. Isolated totals could exceed 20 inches or even higher.*

Rainfall of this magnitude will result in widespread potentially devastating flooding of rivers, creeks, and bayous as well as flash flooding on short time scales where local rainfall rates may exceed 2-4 inches per hour. The entire region is at risk for these rainfall totals, but where maximum totals occur cannot be determined until the event is underway.*

Rain bands will begin to approach the lower TX coast late Thursday and the coastal bend on Friday, spreading into SE TX (around Matagorda Bay Friday afternoon) and into much of SE TX Friday night. The system will linger over the region through the entire weekend and into the early portion of next week.*

Storm Surge/Tides:*

(the numbers listed below are total water levels)

San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Bay:*
3-5 ft (2-4 feet above the lowest natural ground)
Possible tidal flooding around Clear Lake, Seabrook, Kemah, Shoreacres, lower San Jacinto River, Bolivar Peninsula, west end of Galveston Island

San Luis Pass to Port O Connor:*

4-6 ft (3-4 feet above the lowest natural ground)
Overwash likely along the Brazoria and Matagorda County coast including Matagorda Island.*
Minor coastal flooding along the western side of Matagorda and Lavaca Bays including the lower portions of (Port Lavaca, Indianola, Port O Connor)



Port O Connor southward:*

Maximum coastal flooding/storm surge will in the area near and just west of Matagorda Bay across SW Calhoun and Aransas Counties possibly into San Patricio County. Coastal water levels in this area may reach 4-6 feet above MSL and 3-4 feet above ground level. Some slightly higher levels may be found at the heads inland bays and inlet.*

Winds:*
Tropical storm force winds will begin along the lower and middle TX coast early Friday morning just prior to sunrise. Tropical storm conditions will begin to arrive into the Matagorda Bay region around 800-900am and spread into most of coastal SE TX by 800pm Friday. Hurricane force conditions will approach the middle TX coast Friday late afternoon from Port Aransas to Matagorda Bay and inland across Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Victoria, Aransas, Refugio, and San Patricio Counties Friday night.*

San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Bay (Galveston, Harris, Chambers, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, Wharton Colorado: tropical storm force winds of at least 40mph will be possible by late Friday. Winds could gust up to 50-60mph across inland Wharton and Colorado Counties Friday night into Saturday.*

San Luis Pass to Port O Connor: Sustained winds of 60-70mph Friday night with near hurricane conditions (especially Matagorda Bay area)

Port O Connor to Port Aransas: Sustained winds 65-75mph Friday night with higher gust

Actions:*
Preparations to protect life and property should be underway in the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas

Strong emphasis must be placed on the potential for widespread flooding rainfall and those impacts*

Prepare for sporadic power outages due to both wind and flooding (wind especially around Matagorda Bay)

The next two days is the time to prepare for prolonged impacts from Harvey

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