Tropical Weather Threat For Texas

[Man]

Is there any ridge or high pressure or any other meteorology term that could send this thing back east toward Houston?

[1369]

Is there any ridge or high pressure or any other meteorology term that could send this thing back east toward Houston?

From what I understand (And the video from the "Tropical Tidbits" guy laid out) is that when Harvey comes ashore it'll be "wedged" between two high pressure systems from both the east and west. It won't really be able to go anywhere until one of them weakens.

[Aggiechick]

So what is everyone's consensus - should I board up my place in POC?

[bdchorn]

Is there any ridge or high pressure or any other meteorology term that could send this thing back east toward Houston?

Not sure what the proper terminology is but most models show it turning North and East once it makes land and virtually all of them predict it stalls and just dumps rain for a few days. Would have to believe Houston could be in for a world of hurt

[webb09]

The latest models that trend it west could be due to the fact it is stationary at this time. All major weather outlets are still saying between CC and Houston. Just my thoughts.

[Neck]

So what is everyone's consensus - should I board up my place in POC?

I don't think it will be a significant wind event so much as a rainfall event but I am no weather man.

[Aggiechick]

I don't think it will be a significant wind event so much as a rainfall event but I am no weather man.

That is what I am thinking too, but this is my first named storm with the house and I dont want to over react. I was not worried until my friends started calling asking if I needed help.

[snappertapper]

I don't think it will be a significant wind event so much as a rainfall event but I am no weather man.

It could still very well come ashore as a cat 1. thats 75-95mph winds for the area surrounding landfall.

You are correct that it is going to be a much more significant rain event for the bulk of Texas, but someone is gonna catch some wind out of this deal too.

[johnpaul]

I don't think boarding up windows will be necessary for this one.

[1369]

That is what I am thinking too, but this is my first named storm with the house and I dont want to over react. I was not worried until my friends started calling asking if I needed help.

Here's the latest wind probability table from the NHC. Scroll down and POC is listed.

[gonehuntin68]

That is what I am thinking too, but this is my first named storm with the house and I dont want to over react. I was not worried until my friends started calling asking if I needed help.

You would be better off over reacting by being prepared for the worse then under reacting and then have the worse happen.

[GarGuy]

I think the significant thing about those models is that they run through the 27th. This thing is supposed to be a rain maker well beyond the 27th.

[bboswell]

So what is everyone's consensus - should I board up my place in POC?

With land fall location still unsure I would board up if I had a place there.

[texashunter56]

The last one I remember was Hurricane Claudette that hit the Port O'connor area in July of 2003. It actually strengthened quickly right before landfall and then moved westward across the state. It did not loose much intensity till it moved across the state. I did quite a bit of tree and roof damage in Bee County. Lot of folks lost electricity for almost a week in the smaller towns.

[1369]

I think the significant thing about those models is that they run through the 27th. This thing is supposed to be a rain maker well beyond the 27th.

Yea, the latest ECMWF run is nuts. Comes ashore just south of Corpus/Corpus on Saturday, around San Antonio/Austin on Sunday, back to Corpus on Monday, just offshore in the Gulf on Tuesday, and back ashore around the TX/LA line on Tuesday.