Recession Coming early/mid 2023

[91cavgt]

Maybe a recession coming, it is hard to measure how severe and more importantly how long. My guess is there has to be a break, where I live it seems every auto on the road is less than 3 years old. The shops are still full of buyers. It seems to me there has to be a break. Depression would be a severe decline in GDP which does not seem to be close. While the historic precursor ( concentration of wealth ) exist at near pre-great-depression levels I am not feeling it. Then again it did not seem the great depression gave a lot of warning. Those predicting a depression have nothing to lose, they can crow if it happens, if not this thread can rest in obscurity.

It’s not a break where you live, it is called lines of credit. Most people nowadays don’t care how much an item costs. All they care about is can I afford the monthly payment to keep the lifestyle that I’m used to going.

Late last year personal savings were about at an all time high while credit card utilization was about at an all time low. Those have now flipped. Personal savings are at an all time low while credit card utilization are at an all time high. People are financing their lifestyle, and there will come a time when the piper has to be paid, or will come to collect.

A recession used to be defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Well, we have seen negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters. Just because someone changes a definition doesn’t change what the circumstance is. The definition of depression is an extended recession (check) which effects multiple economies (check) while having large unemployment, which is the only criteria we are not seeing, yet. The FED has already stated that we need high unemployment to stop inflation.

Keep in mind that Texas is doing a LOT better than most states right now thanks to the influx of cash rich California’s and New Englander’s. They sold real estate to get here, bought real estate here, and are spending just like they have always done. But what happens when those overdraft letters come in the mail? This pattern can’t keep going and the metrics are showing that.

If the meteorologists are all saying a hurricane is going to hit in 24 hours, but it is sunny outside, does that mean the meteorologists are all wrong? Or does it mean that bad stuff just hasn’t gotten to your area yet? Too many people ignore the storm clouds on the horizon until it’s too late to prepare. These are the people who call 911 in the middle of the storm, but by that point no one can come to help. The question is which person do you want to be? The one who prepared, or the one who is calling 911?

[Mitchell8]

Gotta trust it. Y’all closing the office a month early saved so many lives!

[tps7742]

Try to keep a low debt as much as possible but I understand you need a place to live and car to drive on the other side of that coin. Live below your means, keep trudging forward and do what you have to do, OT second job it shall pass eventually. Definitely going to get worse before it gets better. Depression, I don’t think so but we shall see with time. Don’t believe everything you hear of these folks spewing their negativity and most of it we can’t do anything about it anyhow. It’s going to take a while/few years to purge these #$&$*()@ out of our USA. But when I see the mama bears and every day citizens getting involved it does give me hope for our grandkids. We also need to prepare and teach our kids/ family to never let their guard down and be prepared for any situation also be willing to defend it, what ever that takes. Preparation takes on a different meaning to each person. It is a screwed up world right now no doubt.

[PlanoDano]

It’s not a break where you live, it is called lines of credit. Most people nowadays don’t care how much an item costs. All they care about is can I afford the monthly payment to keep the lifestyle that I’m used to going.

Late last year personal savings were about at an all time high while credit card utilization was about at an all time low. Those have now flipped. Personal savings are at an all time low while credit card utilization are at an all time high. People are financing their lifestyle, and there will come a time when the piper has to be paid, or will come to collect.

A recession used to be defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Well, we have seen negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters. Just because someone changes a definition doesn’t change what the circumstance is. The definition of depression is an extended recession (check) which effects multiple economies (check) while having large unemployment, which is the only criteria we are not seeing, yet. The FED has already stated that we need high unemployment to stop inflation.

Keep in mind that Texas is doing a LOT better than most states right now thanks to the influx of cash rich California’s and New Englander’s. They sold real estate to get here, bought real estate here, and are spending just like they have always done. But what happens when those overdraft letters come in the mail? This pattern can’t keep going and the metrics are showing that.

If the meteorologists are all saying a hurricane is going to hit in 24 hours, but it is sunny outside, does that mean the meteorologists are all wrong? Or does it mean that bad stuff just hasn’t gotten to your area yet? Too many people ignore the storm clouds on the horizon until it’s too late to prepare. These are the people who call 911 in the middle of the storm, but by that point no one can come to help. The question is which person do you want to be? The one who prepared, or the one who is calling 911?

Agreed with most of what you said. For clarity, when I say break I mean there has to be a period of no increase or actually a decrease in growth because the consumer has run out of resources (including credit). The assumption I make is that consumer spending has replaced scarcity as the main driver of inflation.

[91cavgt]

Agreed with most of what you said. For clarity, when I say break I mean there has to be a period of no increase or actually a decrease in growth because the consumer has run out of resources (including credit). The assumption I make is that consumer spending has replaced scarcity as the main driver of inflation.

This is true, and we are seeing it happen, just not as much in Texas, and definitely not seeing it in the more affluent areas of the state.