In our technological times, we have the entire worlds knowledge at our fingertips. However, it can be so overwhelming that it is difficult to absorb all the information that is put in front of us. I’m no better at this than any of you, but I am seeing something happen more and more often that is disturbing to me. Normalcy bias is what it is called. This is what Wikipedia says about Normalcy Bias;
Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects. The normalcy bias causes many people to not adequately prepare for natural disasters, market crashes, and calamities caused by human error. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.
Now let’s get into the meat and potatoes of this post.
We are entering another Great Depression, but this one coming up has all the signs of being MUCH worse than the last one. There will be those who say I am fear mongering, but it is my belief that they are just a victim of normalcy bias. It hasn’t ever been really really bad so it never will be is the mindset that they have. So, here is a comparison of the times at the beginning of the Great Depression compared to what we are experiencing right now.
Population:
In 1930 the United States had a population of 122 million.
Now we have a population of about 350 million, or close to 3 times as many.
Infrastructure spending:
In 1930 we were spending 0.9% of total GDP on infrastructure. This peaked at just over 1.1% to GDP in 1970(not counting the years during WWII). As of 2019, infrastructure spending was down to just 0.7% of GDP. So we are spending 0.2% less now than in 1930, but we have 3 times as many people.
Needless to say, our electrical infrastructure is in dire straits and as a country, already is having problems supporting the current population(look at all the recent electrical provider initiated blackouts in the Midwest for example).
Stores:
In 1930, the vast majority of stores were independently owned, and for the most part, stores focused on necessities.
Today the vast majority of stores are chain stores, and the vast majority of the merchandise in the stores are things that we don’t need, but we want.
Over the last few months, a disturbing trend has developed where these chain stores are reporting dismal earnings, major supply chain issues, and are even laying off employees. Stores can not stay open if they are loosing money. With no improvements in the supply chain on the horizon, how will these big chain stores stay open? Stores in smaller cities have the likelihood of closing before stores in big cities do.
Supply chain:
In 1930, we were for the most part, self sufficient. Imports and exports were about equal. Now however, we are a net importer with a vast majority of our needed goods being imported. WWII did not get going until 1939 whereas today we are already seeing a war, granted not a world war but it is one that has GREATLY adversely effected the supply of goods throughout the world.
Water:
The dust bowl did not start until 1934. So in 1930, there were no water shortages. Today we have Lake Mead at the verge of being considered dead pool. California has just stopped irrigation of some fruit and vegetable farms. The only way these farms can continue irrigation is if they have an old agreement with the state. This effects thousands of farms in California. About 2/3 of the vegetables, fruits, and nuts that we consume come from California. So how is that going to effect the availability of said food in stores in the months to come?
I’m not even going to get into the similarities and differences in the stock market from then and now. There are a few other differences that could be brought up, but solid numbers are hard to find. Like how many people had their own back yard garden in 1930 compared to now, how many people actually had electricity then verses now, ect.
One common theme keeps emerging though. We are seeing worse conditions now than what we saw at the beginning of the Great Depression. One really big difference between then and now is the skill set that people had back then verses the skill set people have now. Those skills are what helped people to make it through the Great Depression. Back then, manual labor is all people knew. There were no computers, no automation, and very few people had cars.
Now our economy is directly tied to the world’s economy, primarily due to our imports. When the worlds economy goes down hill, ours does too. There is nothing that we can do right now to stop this. We have been outsourcing so much over the last several decades that we do not have the manufacturing capability to fix this. In order to fix this problem, trillions of dollars would have to be spent to build factories. But who will work in those factories? We have a HUGE labor problem right now which they did not have at the beginning of the Great Depression. It was not until 1933 when unemployment peaked, which was a whole 3 years into the depression.
The above is not my opinion, it is all facts. So, it is not fear mongering. If facts scare you, then you need to reassess your situation. This is NOT the end of the world, but it does show that times are about to get REALLY tough. It is not too late to prepare for this, but it is getting more and more expensive to do so.
Start looking at your particular circumstances. Do you have a way to get water that is not from a public water source? Do you need refrigeration to keep meds cool? If you need refrigeration, what are your plans for an extended power outage? How about food? Wild game was almost eliminated during the Great Depression. With 3 times as many people, you can not rely on game. Do you have a garden? Now is the time to make mistakes. You don’t want to be making mistakes when your life and the lives of your family hang in the balance.
Prepare now my friends.
Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects. The normalcy bias causes many people to not adequately prepare for natural disasters, market crashes, and calamities caused by human error. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.
Now let’s get into the meat and potatoes of this post.
We are entering another Great Depression, but this one coming up has all the signs of being MUCH worse than the last one. There will be those who say I am fear mongering, but it is my belief that they are just a victim of normalcy bias. It hasn’t ever been really really bad so it never will be is the mindset that they have. So, here is a comparison of the times at the beginning of the Great Depression compared to what we are experiencing right now.
Population:
In 1930 the United States had a population of 122 million.
Now we have a population of about 350 million, or close to 3 times as many.
Infrastructure spending:
In 1930 we were spending 0.9% of total GDP on infrastructure. This peaked at just over 1.1% to GDP in 1970(not counting the years during WWII). As of 2019, infrastructure spending was down to just 0.7% of GDP. So we are spending 0.2% less now than in 1930, but we have 3 times as many people.
Needless to say, our electrical infrastructure is in dire straits and as a country, already is having problems supporting the current population(look at all the recent electrical provider initiated blackouts in the Midwest for example).
Stores:
In 1930, the vast majority of stores were independently owned, and for the most part, stores focused on necessities.
Today the vast majority of stores are chain stores, and the vast majority of the merchandise in the stores are things that we don’t need, but we want.
Over the last few months, a disturbing trend has developed where these chain stores are reporting dismal earnings, major supply chain issues, and are even laying off employees. Stores can not stay open if they are loosing money. With no improvements in the supply chain on the horizon, how will these big chain stores stay open? Stores in smaller cities have the likelihood of closing before stores in big cities do.
Supply chain:
In 1930, we were for the most part, self sufficient. Imports and exports were about equal. Now however, we are a net importer with a vast majority of our needed goods being imported. WWII did not get going until 1939 whereas today we are already seeing a war, granted not a world war but it is one that has GREATLY adversely effected the supply of goods throughout the world.
Water:
The dust bowl did not start until 1934. So in 1930, there were no water shortages. Today we have Lake Mead at the verge of being considered dead pool. California has just stopped irrigation of some fruit and vegetable farms. The only way these farms can continue irrigation is if they have an old agreement with the state. This effects thousands of farms in California. About 2/3 of the vegetables, fruits, and nuts that we consume come from California. So how is that going to effect the availability of said food in stores in the months to come?
I’m not even going to get into the similarities and differences in the stock market from then and now. There are a few other differences that could be brought up, but solid numbers are hard to find. Like how many people had their own back yard garden in 1930 compared to now, how many people actually had electricity then verses now, ect.
One common theme keeps emerging though. We are seeing worse conditions now than what we saw at the beginning of the Great Depression. One really big difference between then and now is the skill set that people had back then verses the skill set people have now. Those skills are what helped people to make it through the Great Depression. Back then, manual labor is all people knew. There were no computers, no automation, and very few people had cars.
Now our economy is directly tied to the world’s economy, primarily due to our imports. When the worlds economy goes down hill, ours does too. There is nothing that we can do right now to stop this. We have been outsourcing so much over the last several decades that we do not have the manufacturing capability to fix this. In order to fix this problem, trillions of dollars would have to be spent to build factories. But who will work in those factories? We have a HUGE labor problem right now which they did not have at the beginning of the Great Depression. It was not until 1933 when unemployment peaked, which was a whole 3 years into the depression.
The above is not my opinion, it is all facts. So, it is not fear mongering. If facts scare you, then you need to reassess your situation. This is NOT the end of the world, but it does show that times are about to get REALLY tough. It is not too late to prepare for this, but it is getting more and more expensive to do so.
Start looking at your particular circumstances. Do you have a way to get water that is not from a public water source? Do you need refrigeration to keep meds cool? If you need refrigeration, what are your plans for an extended power outage? How about food? Wild game was almost eliminated during the Great Depression. With 3 times as many people, you can not rely on game. Do you have a garden? Now is the time to make mistakes. You don’t want to be making mistakes when your life and the lives of your family hang in the balance.
Prepare now my friends.
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