Probability of the FDA Approving a Vaccine

[Ætheling]

TLDR: Only 22 percent of Vaccines make it through the normal FDA process from pre clinical to launch going through several testing stages.

The Covid Vaccines have a 22 percent chance of being considered safe by normal standards that were obviously waived. This is their numbers. Its just math. I have loved ones that have taken it and will take it, I really hope they fall into the 22 percent. Obviously Astazeneca and JJ did not.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt0596-591.pdf?origin=ppub

[Artos]

I could share folks posting adverse reactions like this every day, but think at this point minds are already made up on who is for / against.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlaiseP59407586/status/1385234450787803139

It's my opinion the jj was halted over pure politics to help the two mrna vacs snag all the $$$.

[BrianL]

FDA approved birth control meds which have a 1000x more likelihood of blood clots, than either Astazeneca or J&J...

[Jon Stewart]

There are not many prescribed medicines that doesn't have the possibility of severe side effects like clotting and cancer. Just read the little paper that comes with your prescription. Heck you may even go out back and commit suicide.

[RiverRat1]

We know most have side affects. I think the point of the OP is that the math shows this should only have a 1 in 5 chance of approval...But we all know they will approve it.

Anyone disagree? If so I'll give much better odds and wager a lot of money.

[jaime1982]

FDA approved birth control meds which have a 1000x more likelihood of blood clots, than either Astazeneca or J&J...

Are any of the jabs FDA approved?

Why not if they are so safe?

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[BrianL]

We know most have side affects. I think the point of the OP is that the math shows this should only have a 1 in 5 chance of approval...But we all know they will approve it.

Anyone disagree? If so I'll give much better odds and wager a lot of money.

But OP is only looking at the ones left standing. There were 100+ vaccine variants originally.

[Johnny44]

Yuk

[Ætheling]

But OP is only looking at the ones left standing. There were 100+ vaccine variants originally.

No. The probability numbers below what you are looking at. 57 percent fail first tier. So multiply 57 by the next rate and continue to 22/100. This is all over FDA literature. Its no secret. The current vaccines have a 22 percent chance of being “safe” by skipping this process because only 22 percent of all vaccines survive after every step of the FDAs process is followed.

[Ætheling]

Im just posting what I think is an important statistic. We skipped this years long process, fir better or worse. The probability that any of these vaccines would have under normal circumstances survived the FDA process is around 22 percent. Thats the batting average for vaccines in the US. These vaccines are under “emergency use” only. Make up your own mind.

[txpitdog]

No. The probability numbers below what you are looking at. 57 percent fail first tier. So multiply 57 by the next rate and continue to 22/100. This is all over FDA literature. Its no secret. The current vaccines have a 22 percent chance of being “safe” by skipping this process because only 22 percent of all vaccines survive after every step of the FDAs process is followed.

I get where you’re coming from, but check these out and see what you think. One is an explanation of the COVID vaccine process, and the other is a more updated discussion on general vaccine development timeframes. The article you linked is 24yrs old, and I am hesitant to hold Project Warp Speed to the same 24yr old performance and results given all the advancements and funding.

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5350

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01230-y

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[EarleyBird]

Ugh, fall in line and take the shot, or don't. Nobody cares anymore. Do it or don't.

[EarleyBird]

Ugh, fall in line and take the shot, or don't. Nobody cares anymore. Do it or don't.

You sycophants are EXHAUSTING, with all your rationalizations for blindly obliging to an unproven, experimental 'vaccine" that really means nothing. The Chinese Cooties has a 99.8% survival rate.

Most people who get it never even knew they had it, for crying out loud.

[glen]

Why would drug companies want FDA approval at this point? What benefit? They are producing and making money from a medication that they are not liable for any negative side effects or responses. Drug companies are in a win/win situation with this one.

[kae006]

You sycophants are EXHAUSTING, with all your rationalizations for blindly obliging to an unproven, experimental 'vaccine" that really means nothing. The Chinese Cooties has a 99.8% survival rate.

Most people who get it never even knew they had it, for crying out loud.

You should have taken your own advice, at least the other posters were using statistics and logic.

Ugh, fall in line and take the shot, or don't. Nobody cares anymore. Do it or don't.