20% unemployment

[Playa]

Read a stat that the CBO is anticipating 20% unemployment after all this. To put that into perspective at its peak in the Great Depression it was a hair under 25% and averaged 14%

The 1st real wave of socialism was doled out as a result of the New Deal. Given the recent rise of socialism I doubt we can stave off a full on dose in the midst of an economic collapse. We are already too heavily dependent and weak in resolve and sovereignty as a people.

Let’s hope this prognosis is as overblown as the virus itself has been

[iamntxhunter]

Read a stat that the CBO is anticipating 20% unemployment after all this. To put that into perspective at its peak in the Great Depression it was a hair under 25% and averaged 14%

The 1st real wave of socialism was doled out as a result of the New Deal. Given the recent rise of socialism I doubt we can stave off a full on dose in the midst of an economic collapse. We are already too heavily dependent and weak in resolve and sovereignty as a people.

So let me ask you what a full ondose looks like to you?

I don't doubt that some politicians will try to use this to their advantage to push silly legislation. Even though there seems to be a lot of Bernie supporters he is being defeated by Joe Biden of all people.
By looking at the primary numbers for Trump I don't think the country, at least the majority, want socialism.
It is up to "we the people" to keep our Republic and that requires constant diligence.

[OldRiverRat]

It’s going to be very interesting to see how we climb out of this not only as a country but how the rest of the world manages. The amount of debt incurred is going to be staggering.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Stuck]

Every movie theatre, every restaurant, many retail stores are closed for business right now. A lot of,those workers have been laid off and filed to help get them through these times. As soon as this is over unemployment drops. This is nothing like the great depression. Yes, there are some store fronts that will not reopen, but the majority will. Imo, if we can get through this quick enough that a large parentage of businesses and individuals don't start defaulting on loans this will be a hicup, if it drags out for 6/7months, we'll have a true recession.

[LWC]

Did Trump screw up by folding under the social pressure and going all in on Corona (with very incomplete and inaccurate worst case scenarios from the so called experts)?

What if the numbers that come out in the next couple weeks show that this was not nearly as deadly and scary as originally thought? If Trump comes out and says the experts got it wrong, lets get back to business....he will be crucified by the media. If he keeps going along with the hysteria and our economy continues to collapse...he will be crucified by the media.

How does Trump and our country put this genie back into the bottle if the hysterical numbers don't pan out? Thoughts?

[Clay C]

My concern is that the death toll from the potential economic impact could very likely be larger than the virus death toll people were trying to avoid.

[Playa]

Every movie theatre, every restaurant, many retail stores are closed for business right now. A lot of,those workers have been laid off and filed to help get them through these times. As soon as this is over unemployment drops. This is nothing like the great depression. Yes, there are some store fronts that will not reopen, but the majority will. Imo, if we can get through this quick enough that a large parentage of businesses and individuals don't start defaulting on loans this will be a hicup, if it drags out for 6/7months, we'll have a true recession.

I think you underestimate the cash position of most small businesses. I seriously doubt if 80% of them can survive with no or reduced revenue for 1/2 of Q2. Success rate is challenging without a major disruption.

[miket]

Most small businesses are like most families. Week to week. Missing a paycheck puts you behind. Missing several takes months to recover from. The difference is without money you cant pay employees to work, and cant buy whatever you sell or use to make what you sell. The business dies. Costs are HUGE. Most profit is low.

Here is an example. It is not uncommon for me to get a PO for say $10, 000. Due in a week. Lot of money to turn around in a week, right? Material is $6000. Pay my guy $1200. I program, run, deliver, order etc. I work about 60hrs that week ( slow week ) and make $1151/week. Machine $425/week. After taxes insurance etc th company makes almost nothing. They dont pay for 120 days on net30 terms. Corona hits/oil crashes. Work slows. Still pay myself and my guy. How long can I survive? How long till I dont even have enough to buy material for the next job? Have to have thousands in cash for matl. But every day there is no work Im bleeding cash.

It works the same way for most businesses according to most small business owners I have talked to.

[Acameron52]

It’s scary.

[Charles]

Most small businesses are like most families. Week to week. Missing a paycheck puts you behind. Missing several takes months to recover from. The difference is without money you cant pay employees to work, and cant buy whatever you sell or use to make what you sell. The business dies. Costs are HUGE. Most profit is low.

Here is an example. It is not uncommon for me to get a PO for say $10, 000. Due in a week. Lot of money to turn around in a week, right? Material is $6000. Pay my guy $1200. I program, run, deliver, order etc. I work about 60hrs that week ( slow week ) and make $1151/week. Machine $425/week. After taxes insurance etc th company makes almost nothing. They dont pay for 120 days on net30 terms. Corona hits/oil crashes. Work slows. Still pay myself and my guy. How long can I survive? How long till I dont even have enough to buy material for the next job? Have to have thousands in cash for matl. But every day there is no work Im bleeding cash.

It works the same way for most businesses according to most small business owners I have talked to.

That's about how my business operates.

Only difference, is I learned a long long time ago that, if I'm out of cash I'm out of business. That's why I bust my tail to keep at minimum 6 months worth of cash on hand at all times. To be able to weather an unexpected hiccup.

I hope after this mess is all said and done more folks get on board with the importance of stock piling cash for an emergency fund. History has taught us **** happens and we should be prepared to deal with that ****. Cash is usually the best tool to clean up the ****.

One more side note: 120 days to pay is unacceptable, especially at your margins.

[miket]

That's about how my business operates.

Only difference, is I learned a long long time ago that, if I'm out of cash I'm out of business. That's why I bust my tail to keep at minimum 6 months worth of cash on hand at all times. To be able to weather an unexpected hiccup.

I hope after this mess is all said and done more folks get on board with the importance of stock piling cash for an emergency fund. History has taught us **** happens and we should be prepared to deal with that ****. Cash is usually the best tool to clean up the ****.

One more side note: 120 days to pay is unacceptable, especially at your margins.

I have about 6 months or so, depending on when I let my guy go. Personal debt is low so I can cut my pay pretty good. Dang right 120 days is unacceptable. But business has been slow for months. Has been for everyone I know on the manufacturing side of oil business. Its take that or nothing. I do get paid on time ( well almost on time ) most of the time.

[Charles]

Good for you on being prepared cash wise.

My game plan right now is to see how things are in 30 days. If I see indicators work is in the near everyone on my staff is safe. If it's still gloom and doom, I'll probably go into cash preservation mode and start laying off or just close down all together.

Laying off and closing down will be a very difficult call though. I've been self employed for 30 years.

[friscopaint]

Daughters apartments in Frisco have the office closed. Wife asked her about paying rent and said she can't get in the office. Makes me wonder with all this going on if company figures since they can't evict nobody is gonna pay anyway and they can't make their loan payments so cut their losses now. May look like Detroit with all the closed down apartments after all of this. On my wedding FB one lady said her renter just called her and stated she won't be paying and if goes on much she will have to kick the house back to the bank.

[Charles]

most apartments went to online payment portals years ago

[friscopaint]

most apartments went to online payment portals years ago

probably irrelevant anyway, she was a waitress at a Frisco sports bar/restaurant