Poll: US Should Confront China on Trade

[Head Hunter]

But in the process it has inconvenienced some soybean farmers who will not be voting for Trump in 2020 even though they are certain the soybean industry will never come back regardless of who the next president it.

Agreed. Every one wants better but no one wants to sacrifice. Unfortunately we are some time and generations removed from people in this country understanding what sacrifice looks like for the better of all involved. I don't like to suffer or give up my comforts any more than the next guy but at some point we need to look at what the future looks like for our kids. The boomers and gen Xers (my generation) were given the most prosperous nation in the world and we have been passive and complacent in my opinion. The good ol USA has turned into a consumption monster and what made us strong was when we produced and manufactured. The rest of the world wanted what was made in the USA. Not so now. we have outsourced most of our manufacturing. Go to Chinamart (Walmart) and look a the packaging on most of the goods. I bet it is hard to find made in the USA, probably made in China. I believe Tariffs played a big role in driving jobs and production oversees. Again I am no economics pro or genius just trying to use common sense and logic.

[MetalMan2004]

I don’t want to be argumentative, but that’s not true^^^.

Brazil is ramping their soy production as fast as they can.

I understand that the hit to the Ag industry might just be collateral damage for the overall trade war, but I really wish more people were better informed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/US/2019/08/08/Chinas-decision-to-cease-agricultural-imports-rocks-US-farmers/6121565219719/

Even if a trade deal is struck tomorrow, many industry experts worry that the market no longer will be there.

Most of those trading partnerships were created by individual companies and trade associations that spent decades cultivating relationships with Chinese buyers, Rogers said.

"When we take our product away from our customers, we teach them that they can operate at full capacity without us," said Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association. "I just don't think it is likely that we'll get the full market back that we had. But, we aren't going to get any of it back without a trade agreement."

I’d like to point out some interesting numbers in this article:

"Now, we stand to lose all of what was a $9.1 billion market in 2018, which was down sharply from the $19.5 billion U.S. farmers exported to China in 2017

“In 2018, the USDA distributed around $10 billion in tariff aid to farmers. This year, the agency said it will give out $14.5 billion.”

The way I understand that, farmers got aid that almost exactly equaled the decline in the market in 2018 and stand to again in 2019.

I realize I’d be oversimplifying the situation to say farmers have had a year and a half of aid to figure out their backup plan. I’m not really sure how much more advanced notice and aid they could be given on the matter either.

[batmaninja]

Brazil expanded its acreage for soy plantations, as did the U.S....by around seven million acres. The 2017 harvest was a record breaker. More soy means lower prices. Not even midwestern floods have had an impact on all that supply. Soy prices have been falling since 2012 because of this supply boom. Prices paid to farmers haven't been this low since 2006.

And prices have been falling on beans for 7 years!!!!

Why would anyone want to plant beans when the price is falling and the market is dominated by one country that doesnt really have that great of a business track record?

[Razrbk89]

Brazil expanded its acreage for soy plantations, as did the U.S....by around seven million acres. The 2017 harvest was a record breaker. More soy means lower prices. Not even midwestern floods have had an impact on all that supply. Soy prices have been falling since 2012 because of this supply boom. Prices paid to farmers haven't been this low since 2006.

And prices have been falling on beans for 7 years!!!!

Why would anyone want to plant beans when the price is falling and the market is dominated by one country that doesnt really have that great of a business track record?

I concede, you’re right..... I shouldn’t have rattled the echo chamber.

Some of you guys seem to have a lot of background knowledge and experience. Heck, y’all would be good at it! There’s tons of farm ground for rent, I could even get you started on some stuff that I have laid out, right now. Just go to a local bank and get a loan (I hear they’re handing it out like candy) and you’ll be ready to buy everything that you need & get going. I’m sure with the knowledge that you already have, there’s no way you’ll fail, even if your market gets yanked out from under you. Hell, your charitable Uncle Sam will even pay ya TWO whole dollars on the bushel for the difference!

All joking aside, I was just trying to show that there are two sides to every story. That’s something that seems to have been thrown by the wayside in modern political discussion. I’m a pretty simple guy & I don’t have tons of far reaching life experience, so I try to stay in my lane and not jaw just a whole lot about stuff that I’m not real up on.

[Artos]

It's been going on way too long and shameful so many of the previous potus would not address it & we need to win. I think China is going to hold off on a trade hoping for a miracle for 2020. They are taking it on the chin right now & need us more.

China was amazing at what they could accomplish in regards to my competition. I worked in Mexico for almost 15 years making electrical wire harnesses & sub-assemblies for every market from automotive to consumer...China could mfg & in most cases deliver the final assembly for the same cost I had in material alone.

I dealt with a lot of copper and that trades for x amount of $$$$ like all other metals across the globe & comparing quotes sometimes on basic heavy ga cable assemblies the copper content value was being messed with alone. When you own the entire supply base along with the labor they laughed at nafta. We got by on being next door, carrying all the inventory & being local to fix problems. While China is good at what they do, it requires mfg's here who need their goods to have a 2-3 month supply chain with a 30 day boat ride & if there is a defect / design change local can react, where with china you are stuck with a lot of bad goods and weeks to fix problems vs days.

[batmaninja]

All joking aside, I was just trying to show that there are two sides to every story.

I get that and appreciate your insight.

I think there is chess game being played here with more pieces than I could even begin to count. I think that the Chinese are very smart and very shrewd. And have in acted tariffs to specifically target Donnys demographic, farmers among other folks.

You brought up the beans. I am just trying to understand why the bean market is so important, and how long it would take to transition to another crop. I think that the US has some of the most fertile land in the world, and planting another crop wouldn't be that hard, and may even be a good business practice in the long run. On a completely different level I am also interested in how this would effect land prices and if land is going to be consolidated into bigger farms.

[M16]

More winning. Now quit whining. The Chinese are starving.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs-idUSKCN1VY0TX

[Artos]

I hear DeWALT is moving one of their facilities back to the border...it's not just affecting farmers. The mfg supply chain is starting to feel it & making the hard business decisions. Overall China is taking it on the chin & is going to have to play ball here pretty soon imo. I think they are hoping trump loses 2020 but not sure they will hang that long on that losing bet.

[Pedernal]

Hopefully they are hurting enough to make real changes to the shenanigans they have been allowed to exercise on us.