My 1st and maybe only political post.....

[The Insurance Guy]

I'm at my work convention and Bob Woodward spoke to us. He explained a scenario where none of the current republican candidates can get enough of the votes for the nomination. Then said republican leaders would step up and pressure Paul Ryan to run. Bob went on to explain how qualified Paul Ryan is.

Hopefully this makes sense.

I would like to hear thoughts on this?

[Ironman]

Paul Ryan has already proven he is one of the establishment RINO's in a big way. This scenario is so far fetched, I will not give it another thought.

[Man]

I would have asked him what the hell he was talking about??

[47]

This only accentuates the fact of how completely out of touch the establishment has become with the core of the party. The people.

This sounds exactly like what we've heard Karl Rove drone on about for 15+ years now.

[super_dave]

I work with a die hard yellow dog democrat. Not a liberal, but a democrat, and on several occasions he has stated how the republicans don't want to win an election. The more I hear from the establishment and how they refuse to hear the voice of the people, the mor I begin to believe

[manwitaplan]

Paul Ryan has already proven he is one of the establishment RINO's in a big way. This scenario is so far fetched, I will not give it another thought.

This only accentuates the fact of how completely out of touch the establishment has become with the core of the party. The people.

This sounds exactly like what we've heard Karl Rove drone on about for 15+ years now.

Well said!

[Shane]

I would have asked him what the hell he was talking about??

He's talking about a contested convention. If no primary candidate ends up with a majority of all the delegates (1,237 is the magic number), then the delegates at the convention will have to vote and keep voting until someone gets a majority vote. That's the way party nominees were selected every time until the 50s.

That doesn't mean it will be Paul Ryan. I seriously doubt that would be the outcome. It will end up being one of the current candidates, most likely. Only if they voted and voted and voted for several days and no candidate could get to 1,237 votes would they have to consider other people to break such an impass. Not likely to happen that way, but I guess anything is possible.

http://www.aei.org/publication/your-guide-to-the-republican-primaries/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...n_129119.html#!

http://time.com/4180034/republican-national-committee-contested-convention-trump-cruz/

[doppelganger]

UFC Octagon to determine Republican Rep!!!!!!!!!

[treestand]

Either you didn't really understand what Bob Woodward was trying to say or he has lost his mind. Shane explains it pretty well, above.

I do think there is a very good chance that no candidate will have enough delegates going into the convention. I base this on the belief that Trump will not likely pick up the support of any of the traditional (I hate the word establishment) Republicans even if one or two of them drop out before the convention. So Trump will have somewhere around 1/3 of the delegates and 3-4 of the others will be splitting up the other 2/3's. Then the deal making behind closed doors will decide who get what for throwing their support to one of the others. It will be very interesting.

[The Insurance Guy]

Either you didn't really understand what Bob Woodward was trying to say or he has lost his mind. Shane explains it pretty well, above.

I do think there is a very good chance that no candidate will have enough delegates going into the convention. I base this on the belief that Trump will not likely pick up the support of any of the traditional (I hate the word establishment) Republicans even if one or two of them drop out before the convention. So Trump will have somewhere around 1/3 of the delegates and 3-4 of the others will be splitting up the other 2/3's. Then the deal making behind closed doors will decide who get what for throwing their support to one of the others. It will be very interesting.

I understand completely. I might not have explained it perfect but Shane is correct that is what he was talking about.

Woodward did not say it was going to happen but he could see a scenario where it could happen.

He felt pretty confident that no candidate would get enough votes for the nomination.

[Hogmauler]

I will not have Paul Ryan shoved down my throat. Carl rove tried to do the same thing with Jeb bush. Not buying into it. Get behind Ted or trump maybe Rubio (establishment candidate)

[helim83]

UFC Octagon to determine Republican Rep!!!!!!!!!

Let me expand on this wonderful idea! Every party gets their candidates together and have a tournament. Like the UFC of old. Last one standing gets the nod and goes to the BIG SHOW!

[tvc184]

I work with a die hard yellow dog democrat. Not a liberal, but a democrat, and on several occasions he has stated how the republicans don't want to win an election. The more I hear from the establishment and how they refuse to hear the voice of the people, the mor I begin to believe

Like most people's knowledge of politics, your YDD coworker has a right to his opinion but like most it is based on ..... nothing or maybe a belief that in what he sees today somehow goes back for centuries.

Since 1968 the Republicans have won 7 elections and the Democrats 5. The Republicans have won 5 of the last 9 elections for the White House.

Obama is an anomaly. He came in at the right moment in history. Had he come five years earlier or five years later we would likely have heard almost nothing from him. Not only was Bush unpopular at the end of his term leading to an almost certain Democratic win (not because of wars, etc., but because Bush sided with the Democrats on bailouts) but Hillary was the heir apparent to her husband and she kept otherwise qualified Democrats out of the running. That allowed Obama to squeak by her. Eight years later, the Dems still can't find anyone to run against Hillary except a 74 year old socialist white guy with nothing to lose. (kind of makes you wonder who is trying to lose the election)

To show how great he has been (sarcasm), Obama is the only president going back to the 3rd term of Franklin Roosevelt (back when there was no term limits) to lose votes on his reelection. In 2012 Obama lost almost 4 million votes from his previous win. Hmmmm... wondering who is trying to lose the election? In fact Obama in his second term only got 0.4% (less than one half of one percent) more votes than a fairly unpopular Bush got in his second term.

Then look back at Bill Clinton. He won two terms...... and never got the 50% of the popular vote. That rights folks, Clinton won two terms having never gotten half of the country to vote for him. In fact in 1992 almost 60% of the country voted against him. Strangely enough, Clinton was the last president to sign a balanced budget....... which was sent to him only for his signature from a complete Republican Congress for the first time in (I think) 58 years. So the first time the Republicans controlled all of Congress in almost 6 decades, they balanced the budget, if for a year. That however helped lead Clinton to popularity when the truth is that the Republicans did the work for him by balancing the budget when his own party would not when they were in control.

In my opinion the Dems have been living on luck. Sometimes in politics that is enough. Was Clinton lucky that Ross Perot ran both times that Clinton ran? In 1992 G H W Bush lost to Clinton by only about 5% of the popular vote and Ross person got almost 20%. Did that by default give the election to Clinton that he would not have won?

Going back to the OP, Woodward lives on sensational journalism. I think the idea of a brokered convention is wishful thinking on his part. Is it possible? Absolutely. It is likely? I don't think so but this political season has been so crazy, it is hard to say with certainty.

In the past as people dropped out of the race, they pledged their votes already won in primaries and caucuses to another candidate or simply allowed them to vote for whomever. The typical process is for people to start dropping out as they cannot sustain their campaign. That has already happened with the Republicans with several dropping out. I think in the next 4 weeks we will see more.

For those that think this is odd for several people to run, it isn't. In 2008 when Obama won his first term, there were 10 people running for the Democrats. Everyone remembers Hillary against Obama but they were not the only show in town. I think the reason that so many Republicans are/were running in this election is that they see Hillary as very beatable and after almost 8 miserable years of Obama, many people want to be the one to clean up the mess.

Soon it will be a Trump and likely Cruz/Rubio contest. Maybe another person will slip in like Kasich and push either Cruz or Rubio out but that seems unlike at this point. Then we will get down to the real race and see where all the other candidates send their delegates (if they even get any). I can see a situation where if several candidates did actually stay in for a bit longer and actual acquire some delegates (which is likely what Woodard is suggesting), it would work against Woodward's opinion. If Trump cannot overcome his 35% or so popularity nationwide, that will leave about 65% of the votes going elsewhere. I have the suspicion that Trump will be the odd man out of delegates/votes start being given away. In other words, if Bush were to get some delegates say in Florida, South Caroline and Georgia but then has to back out of the race, will he give his votes away to Trump or to another candidate like Cruz, Kasich or Rubio? I am guessing the Cruz/Rubio/Kasich option.

I don't think that the Republicans will go to the convention with all of their votes split between several candidates, especially when the winner take all states hit. Also in the proportional states each state can set thresholds that must be met for delegates to be given. Like a state might allow several people to earn delegates in a primary but if the delegate doesn't get maybe 20% of the popular vote, he gets no delegates. For example if in such a primary Trump got 35% and Cruz got 30% and all other candidates got less than 20%, only Trump and Cruz would split the votes.

I have hunch that in the end it will be Trump/Cruz or Trump/Rubio at the convention and with the decision likely a done deal.

On the other hand.... I could be wrong.

But I doubt it.

[ttechdallas]

Like most people's knowledge of politics, your YDD coworker has a right to his opinion but like most it is based on ..... nothing or maybe a belief that in what he sees today somehow goes back for centuries.

Since 1968 the Republicans have won 7 elections and the Democrats 5. The Republicans have won 5 of the last 9 elections for the White House.

Obama is an anomaly. He came in at the right moment in history. Had he come five years earlier or five years later we would likely have heard almost nothing from him. Not only was Bush unpopular at the end of his term leading to an almost certain Democratic win (not because of wars, etc., but because Bush sided with the Democrats on bailouts) but Hillary was the heir apparent to her husband and she kept otherwise qualified Democrats out of the running. That allowed Obama to squeak by her. Eight years later, the Dems still can't find anyone to run against Hillary except a 74 year old socialist white guy with nothing to lose. (kind of makes you wonder who is trying to lose the election)

To show how great he has been (sarcasm), Obama is the only president going back to the 3rd term of Franklin Roosevelt (back when there was no term limits) to lose votes on his reelection. In 2012 Obama lost almost 4 million votes from his previous win. Hmmmm... wondering who is trying to lose the election? In fact Obama in his second term only got 0.4% (less than one half of one percent) more votes than a fairly unpopular Bush got in his second term.

Then look back at Bill Clinton. He won two terms...... and never got the 50% of the popular vote. That rights folks, Clinton won two terms having never gotten half of the country to vote for him. In fact in 1992 almost 60% of the country voted against him. Strangely enough, Clinton was the last president to sign a balanced budget....... which was sent to him only for his signature from a complete Republican Congress for the first time in (I think) 58 years. So the first time the Republicans controlled all of Congress in almost 6 decades, they balanced the budget, if for a year. That however helped lead Clinton to popularity when the truth is that the Republicans did the work for him by balancing the budget when his own party would not when they were in control.

In my opinion the Dems have been living on luck. Sometimes in politics that is enough. Was Clinton lucky that Ross Perot ran both times that Clinton ran? In 1992 G H W Bush lost to Clinton by only about 5% of the popular vote and Ross person got almost 20%. Did that by default give the election to Clinton that he would not have won?

Going back to the OP, Woodward lives on sensational journalism. I think the idea of a brokered convention is wishful thinking on his part. Is it possible? Absolutely. It is likely? I don't think so but this political season has been so crazy, it is hard to say with certainty.

In the past as people dropped out of the race, they pledged their votes already won in primaries and caucuses to another candidate or simply allowed them to vote for whomever. The typical process is for people to start dropping out as they cannot sustain their campaign. That has already happened with the Republicans with several dropping out. I think in the next 4 weeks we will see more.

For those that think this is odd for several people to run, it isn't. In 2008 when Obama won his first term, there were 10 people running for the Democrats. Everyone remembers Hillary against Obama but they were not the only show in town. I think the reason that so many Republicans are/were running in this election is that they see Hillary as very beatable and after almost 8 miserable years of Obama, many people want to be the one to clean up the mess.

Soon it will be a Trump and likely Cruz/Rubio contest. Maybe another person will slip in like Kasich and push either Cruz or Rubio out but that seems unlike at this point. Then we will get down to the real race and see where all the other candidates send their delegates (if they even get any). I can see a situation where if several candidates did actually stay in for a bit longer and actual acquire some delegates (which is likely what Woodard is suggesting), it would work against Woodward's opinion. If Trump cannot overcome his 35% or so popularity nationwide, that will leave about 65% of the votes going elsewhere. I have the suspicion that Trump will be the odd man out of delegates/votes start being given away. In other words, if Bush were to get some delegates say in Florida, South Caroline and Georgia but then has to back out of the race, will he give his votes away to Trump or to another candidate like Cruz, Kasich or Rubio? I am guessing the Cruz/Rubio/Kasich option.

I don't think that the Republicans will go to the convention with all of their votes split between several candidates, especially when the winner take all states hit. Also in the proportional states each state can set thresholds that must be met for delegates to be given. Like a state might allow several people to earn delegates in a primary but if the delegate doesn't get maybe 20% of the popular vote, he gets no delegates. For example if in such a primary Trump got 35% and Cruz got 30% and all other candidates got less than 20%, only Trump and Cruz would split the votes.

I have hunch that in the end it will be Trump/Cruz or Trump/Rubio at the convention and with the decision likely a done deal.

On the other hand.... I could be wrong.

But I doubt it.

This is certainly an election year that seems ripe for another anomaly. If it saves us from Trump without the expense of Hillary as president, I am all for it. Though I would prefer they draft Romney. We need Ryan where he is - I think.

[Johnny Dangerr]

If they draft anyone the party is gone. I would vote for a German Shepard before a Republican.....