Economics and Inflation

[diamond10x]

well no one is talking about the Epstein files debacle anymore are they😂

You don't have to agree or even like the current admin but at least be halfway fair in your takes when you try to take jabs. The previous admin, in which you were all in voting for, sat on those files and tried to bury them along with the diddy stuff and many other things.

[Hardware]

[.

[100%TtId]

With the remainder of 2023 included, the US has to refinance 42% of its national debt over the next three years. That means that every month Powell manages to keep interest rates high, the interest bill will keep climbing.


Lot of levers to pull in the economy. Donny need to get rates down so the future interest rate payments will come down. Any guess on how he is going to get Powell to bring rates down?

Maybe this?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html

[Rcole1310]

You don't have to agree or even like the current admin but at least be halfway fair in your takes when you try to take jabs. The previous admin, in which you were all in voting for, sat on those files and tried to bury them along with the diddy stuff and many other things.

First, I was not “all in” voting for previous admin so don’t try to paint me as some Trump hater. He’s gotten my vote before. And I’m not taking jabs. I’m expecting ALL leaders ( left and right) to be accountable to the public when they say they’re going to do something and then don’t. I think that’s a fair expectation. Second, the last admin promised to be the most transparent admin ever, and failed, this one also seems like it’s about to fail at the same promise. Also, I don’t recall that the last admin ever promised to release those files, this one for sure did. As well as the UFO files (crickets), and some of the JFK stuff (more crickets). Everyone in this cabinet is terrified of Trump, they’ll do what he says, he could easily get all of this done with a phone call. It seemed like Joe Biden didn’t know where he was most days so I don’t think he could have done that even if he wanted to. Regarding this thread on tariffs, my frustration is that he’s making unforced errors by not thinking strategically. Don’t just shotgun the market with tariffs, flip flop on them everyday, and hope things workout. Everyone knows this is bad business, tariffs almost never work. Especially when you galvanize the population of the opposing country by telling them they’re going to be the 51st state. He’s 1/2 way through his first 100 days. If the second half is us sliding into recession, history shows he can kiss the house and the senate goodbye. BTW I think he’s doing a good job with Middle East, border, and maybe even this Ukraine war. So credit to where it’s due. But this tariff stuff is nonsense anyway you try to spin it.

[Capt.Brown]

He’s absolutely doing the right thing, he’s got some brilliant minds working with him, he’s much more prepared. Those other countries need the US much more than we need them. Time to stop getting ripped off.

[unclefish]

First of all the stock market and the economy are two separate things. Some of y'all doomsayers need to give the threat of tariff's a chance to work. LOL a couple of weeks of market corrections do not mean that tariff's don't work. Canada and Mexico cannot win a trade war with us...its simple math.

Tariff's absolutely work....why else would every country in the world impose them if they didn't work? Trump just has the balls to say we are tired of getting bent over. Remember....these are reciprocal tariffs. All Canada, Mexico, Europe, and China has to do is drop the tariff's they impose on the US and our tariffs go away. Its quite simple.....but no....those countries want to continue screwing America over. Its despicable some on here don't want to fight back.

Manufacturing won't come back to the US? Are you kidding? Its already coming back.....look at the 2 trillion dollars in investments Trump has secured for the US in just 50 days. Apple $500B, $100B from Taiwan Semi Conductor, Tesla just promised to double manufacturing in the US. Its all out there if you actually search for it.

[bloodtrailer28]

First, I was not “all in” voting for previous admin so don’t try to paint me as some Trump hater. He’s gotten my vote before. And I’m not taking jabs. I’m expecting ALL leaders ( left and right) to be accountable to the public when they say they’re going to do something and then don’t. I think that’s a fair expectation. Second, the last admin promised to be the most transparent admin ever, and failed, this one also seems like it’s about to fail at the same promise. Also, I don’t recall that the last admin ever promised to release those files, this one for sure did. As well as the UFO files (crickets), and some of the JFK stuff (more crickets). Everyone in this cabinet is terrified of Trump, they’ll do what he says, he could easily get all of this done with a phone call. It seemed like Joe Biden didn’t know where he was most days so I don’t think he could have done that even if he wanted to. Regarding this thread on tariffs, my frustration is that he’s making unforced errors by not thinking strategically. Don’t just shotgun the market with tariffs, flip flop on them everyday, and hope things workout. Everyone knows this is bad business, tariffs almost never work. Especially when you galvanize the population of the opposing country by telling them they’re going to be the 51st state. He’s 1/2 way through his first 100 days. If the second half is us sliding into recession, history shows he can kiss the house and the senate goodbye. BTW I think he’s doing a good job with Middle East, border, and maybe even this Ukraine war. So credit to where it’s due. But this tariff stuff is nonsense anyway you try to spin it.

Again where were you the last 4 years ? In your own words.....crickets! No where to be found yet here you are taking your jabs anyway you can. Then acting like any of us know how to run a business or country better than Trump is a big stretch. Tariffs never work?! Lol your kidding right? Let the man do his thing and see how they play out.

[CP121]

Again where were you the last 4 years ? In your own words.....crickets! No where to be found yet here you are taking your jabs anyway you can. Then acting like any of us know how to run a business or country better than Trump is a big stretch. Tariffs never work?! Lol youkidding right? Let the man do his thing and see how they play out.

Yep! It’s always the same tds guys complaining about it on here and now the few that make their living buying cheap crap from china.

[RiverRat1]

Those countries don't pay the tariffs the American public pays them. This tariff war is looking like it may slow or stop US growth and increase inflation if we continue down this road. Rising fear of rescission and possible Stagflation...

If/when we finally go into a recession or depression is has a crap ton more to do with wasting 35 trillion dollars versus increasing tariffs.

IMO it's FAR FAR past time to "pay the piper" so it doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do.

[Calrob]

If/when we finally go into a recession or depression is has a crap ton more to do with wasting 35 trillion dollars versus increasing tariffs.

IMO it's FAR FAR past time to "pay the piper" so it doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do.

Unfortunately this is true. No matter what Trump does, the last 50 years of spending is going to come back around to bite the folks whose money was used. Some people will blame Trump for it but we've been kicking the can down the road for a long while.

[RiverRat1]

I'm no expert... This is tough to explain but most should get my drift. The FED does easing or tightening of monetary policy to try and control the economy. They don't want it going too strong or inflation runs. They don't want it too weak or recession/depression. But basically as people make more money than disposable income they invest in markets (or land etc but that indirectly causes markets to rise also). When economy is weak they "print" money that eventually causes inflation which, when controlled compared to GDP isn't or does not have to be a bad thing.

So now here we are still having inflation. So my question for FAs and economy people is this... If the FED raises rates more to slow inflation that could put bonds over 5% If they are not already there. Also we have trillions in wasteful spending most likely putting billions into the markets every day (as people pocket the money and invest it).

If the current admin stops or slows inflation AND cuts these trillions how much will these combined affect the stock market?

Is it possible to stop inflation, cut government spending by trillions and still have record high stock markets?

This is the simplest I could put it. Not trying to predict markets or anything. Just looking for reasonable possible outcomes going forward.

Figured I'd quote post #1 as the thread ran down a tariff tangent.

Markets are totally not the same thing as the economy. PE ratios can vary from 5 to 60. The entire market trades like low liquidity day trading stocks traded 25 years ago. It's crazy. Valuations are all over the place.

It's my opinion markets are up so high (and over priced) that tons of people were and are looking for reasons to sell. Tariffs became that reason. But the tariffs have done just about zero to any numbers yet so it's pretty dumb at this point. Markets could be falling because lots of people know what I posted above, and were riding the wave as long as possible.

Watch. I'm 99% sure AFTER markets are down another 15-25% the narrative will shift from going down because of tariffs to going down for the real reasons like bad earnings, low exit liquidity in markets, bonds over 5% so people shift from stocks to bonds, inflation not under control ETC.

[Txhunter3000]

Figured I'd quote post #1 as the thread ran down a tariff tangent.

Markets are totally not the same thing as the economy. PE ratios can vary from 5 to 60. The entire market trades like low liquidity day trading stocks traded 25 years ago. It's crazy. Valuations are all over the place.

It's my opinion markets are up so high (and over priced) that tons of people were and are looking for reasons to sell. Tariffs became that reason. But the tariffs have done just about zero to any numbers yet so it's pretty dumb at this point. Markets could be falling because lots of people know what I posted above, and were riding the wave as long as possible.

Watch. I'm 99% sure AFTER markets are down another 15-25% the narrative will shift from going down because of tariffs to going down for the real reasons like bad earnings, low exit liquidity in markets, bonds over 5% so people shift from stocks to bonds, inflation not under control ETC.

For once I agree 100%. Ouch.

[brokeno]

Trump is going to even the playing field. Simple. Quit taking advantage of America.

[monsterspike]

Trump is going to even the playing field. Simple. Quit taking advantage of America.

America playing the victim is the epitome of narcissism.

[CoolHandLuke]

America playing the victim is the epitome of narcissism.

I don’t think you understand what he is stating. Telling other countries the gravy train is over is not playing a victim. I’m sure you can give us some Ill transcribed scripture. Lol