Back in the day (cold war) we believed we could answer 3 flare ups in different parts of the world requiring the response of a carrier battle group or more. Russia is on the ropes with her populace starting to openly question the soundness of going to war with Ukraine. To me it is clear that they are asking China and Iran to heat up certain sectors to stretch our forces while presenting a common villain (the USA) to foster support from their own populace. It is my opinion, that Iran orchestrated the Hamas attack on Israel and the Houthis attack on shipping. Iran has the ability to disrupt transport through the straits of Hormuz. This commits us to strong presence in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Meanwhile PRC is heating up South China Sea (Philippines) and Taiwan. China cannot push too hard because Taiwan is not a pushover and armed conflict with the Philippines could trigger a U.S. response without the need of a declaration of war because of treaties. I think the pressure will be in the South China Sea because rumor is there might be significant energy deposits under what is currently considered Philippines exclusive economic zone. This commits us to keeping a strong presence in the South China Sea. That is three threats requiring an answer.
Where can they create a threat which would force us to protect a 4th zone?
North Korea?
Can we do anything about Iran ?
They have the ability to use aligned forces in Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria without overt action by Iranian forces. The threat of a U.S. strike to Iran would end the chess game but they know our Constitution keeps us from attacking Iran without a Declaration of War from congress. That is not happening so expect to see the Iranians to continue to act through proxies to keep US forces committed in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. What would it cost us to push Netanyahu to deliver some blow to Iran? Would it help?
Where can they create a threat which would force us to protect a 4th zone?
North Korea?
Can we do anything about Iran ?
They have the ability to use aligned forces in Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria without overt action by Iranian forces. The threat of a U.S. strike to Iran would end the chess game but they know our Constitution keeps us from attacking Iran without a Declaration of War from congress. That is not happening so expect to see the Iranians to continue to act through proxies to keep US forces committed in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. What would it cost us to push Netanyahu to deliver some blow to Iran? Would it help?
Comment