hurricane season 2022

[C-dubyah]

If that model turns out to be the real deal then things will be bad. It looks like a major hurricane at 950mb hitting a vulnerable area of LA.

[Traildust]

Every fuggin year as Colorado archery season departure date gets close!

[captainsling]

Looks like models are running again. They are still a long way out.

[gingib]

Send what yall are seeing. I am not seeing much on models or predictions

[Twist]

Send what yall are seeing. I am not seeing much on models or predictions

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022082612&fh=6

The run just started and probably has about 45 minutes left, so not much info available on it at the moment.

When it finishes, click the numbers off to the right. Each one is a 6 hour prediction added to the previous, you can tell what day and time by looking just about the first row of numbers and under Forecast Time (Local).

From what had been appearing, it looked like landfall either Labor Day or the following Tuesday but the track has been all over the place and probably will be until at least the middle of next week.

[captainsling]

Newest run shows a major in Mexican border.

[BrandonA]

Newest run shows a major in Mexican border.

hat would be good for Falcon and hopefully follow I-35 up into Central Texas

[Big pig]

Thanks for that run
What is the timeline in that?
Is it 9/5/22?

[captainsling]

Thanks for that run
What is the timeline in that?
Is it 9/5/22?

Labor Day. 9/5.

It has to get through a lot of dry air before it leaves the Caribbean.

[bloodstick]

Labor Day. 9/5.

It has to get through a lot of dry air before it leaves the Caribbean.

I had been watching this closely since models started hinting at it. My brother (from south louisiana) and myself are leaving my house on labor day for a deer hunt in Wyoming.

If i have to leave a day early, i sure will. Two years in the making for this hunt.


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[C-dubyah]

The newest model shows another one coming in right behind it in the lower right corner of the picture?

[Twist]

The newest model shows another one coming in right behind it in the lower right corner of the picture?

To this point, all the runs I’ve seen have that one turning North well before it hits the East coast and likely going back out to sea.

[MAP]

Come on opening weekend of dove season......more rain? Who would have guessed

[bloodstick]

Most local and national weather guys have these little blips in 20% or less of development. What is the GFS seeing that nothing else is picking up on?


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[TexasBob]

Most local and national weather guys have these little blips in 20% or less of development. What is the GFS seeing that nothing else is picking up on?


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That's the million dollar question. It's likely a modelcane, but it has been consistent in development and gained some additional GFS ensemble support today from what I've read.