hurricane season 2022

[Mexico]

Now 60 percent formation. I'm loving where it's headed!

[SneakyPhil]

watershed baby!!

Amen to that. I don't live the Valley anymore but most of my family does. I know you guys are hurting pretty bad down there. My dad got 4" in Los Fresnos with that last storm you guys got down there.

Hope Monterey gets some as well. I understand they go 5-6 days without water.

[Artos]

It's bad...falcon is at 20% capacity & half of that belongs to mexico.

Amistad is at 30%

[trophy8]

FIFY

[ATTACH]1099151[/ATTACH]

My man….

[Sackett]

FIFY

[ATTACH]1099151[/ATTACH]

Actually, all the real model runs would be ideal for getting tons of rain to the areas that need it in central/west Texas.

[waterdog]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL042022_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/212446_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

[Playa]

Looks like 99L is getting it's act together. Lots of warm water, low winds and a nice spin.

It’s not going to have enough time over GOM to get real organized. But the models agree pretty close on the track and that could send some decent sun tropical moisture over sections of Texas. Not a single square inch of this state would turn down a rain cloud at this point.

I’m traveling and haven’t checked any data, but my gut says that gets steered into Mexico and isn’t much benefit if any to Texas. Maybe if it gets organized enough there are enough remnants that stream over Texas once it finally ejects east.

Again no data behind this, just a gut sense

^^^ my gut was pretty accurate this time

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better
organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form later
today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward
across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[panhandlehunter]

It’s not going to have enough time over GOM to get real organized. But the models agree pretty close on the track and that could send some decent sun tropical moisture over sections of Texas. Not a single square inch of this state would turn down a rain cloud at this point.



^^^ my gut was pretty accurate this time

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better
organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form later
today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward
across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

After today I would turn down a rain cloud. Lol

[waterdog]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL042022_key_messages+png/212446_key_messages_sm.png

[Mexico]

Bring it..

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[Playa]

Bring it..

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That is about the best possible track to benefit the largest slice of Texas. That would also help the monsoon moisture across the desert SW and central mountains, which is also in need of rains

[Artos]

Local liar on the 5 o'clock didn't make it sound like much of a rain maker...anyone else miss Johnny??

[waterdog]

Local liar on the 5 o'clock didn't make it sound like much of a rain maker...anyone else miss Johnny??

levi saying why not much rain for tex. jump to 3:40. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Sackett]

levi saying why not much rain for tex. jump to 3:40. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Very interesting. That guy knows his stuff and I’d trust him well over the local weathermen.

[hero_moneybags]

What happened to Johnny? Is he still around?