The Market Bottom?

[Huntingfool]

I’d didn’t make the post.......you did. I’m not here trying to preach doom and gloom......you are. Your post. Your statements. The burden of relevancy (and proof) is on you chief.

You are right and I am wrong

[Capt.Brown]

In bear markets you have gains that suck investors back in and then it dives again, it really depends on how bad the economy looks in Q3. Q1-Q2 are totally screwed, but if we can get going soon then we could have a big Q3-Q4. Trump is doing an excellent job, and he knows how to get this economy back on track, I wouldn’t want anyone else making the really hard decisions.

[GA Bowhunter]

If the housing market crashes the stock market will fall a good bit more.

Folks learned in 2008 they could walk away from their mortgage and every thing would be fine. If we get back to that situation we are in trouble.

As a home builder I am thankful the rain since mid November has stopped me from getting foundations in and we closed our last house in February. We have finally dried out but me and my business partner are going to sit and wait to see what happens. We have no debt, 45 lots, some developments acreage and a pile of cash. Just the opposite of 2008.

There are several other things that could crash the stock market further. Mass business bankruptcies, high unemployment, the collapse of the banking industry. No one knows what will happen.

My guess(hope) is that everything will be fine. I know it could be 180 degrees from fine though.

My concern with the great buys out there right now is that they could be another GM.

[GA Bowhunter]

But you are wrong.....and in time it’ll be proven.

Why is he wrong?

He may very well be wrong...but he may be right.

[4wheels]

I think you can't figure out when the bottom is with numbers. When we get a more clear picture of the future, then you have a bottom. More like a drug, treatment or transfusion that will enable a massive amount of people to survive this virus. Something that clearly fixes or at least enable people to get well - that will be the bottom. There are two big factors to make this downturn. 1) Saudi and Russia and their current oil conversation. 2) Covid 19. For giggles you can add #3 - the democrats and how they are trying to capitalize on this crisis.

[Grayson]

You are right and I am wrong

You’re an ******* and we are not.

See how that works? All of my financial advisor friends are super high on client relations. Glad to finally know someone who’s not.

[TxAg]

You’re an ******* and we are not.

See how that works? All of my financial advisor friends are super high on client relations. Glad to finally know someone who’s not.

No dog in the fight...but to be fair, Lots of folks get swindled out of money every year by "client relations."

[GA Bowhunter]

The bottom line is that we are all guessing. It can be argued to go either direction. There are too many wild cards right now.

[deerplanter]

I said 18k before the bounce we had two weeks ago... I think we drop back to 19k then start our U shape climb up in June


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree, I also thought 18k back January when I dumped all my stock. I have since bought some but still waiting with lots of cash.

[Charles]

A lot of uncertainty right now and consumer confidence is very low. Earning reports are going to be brutal.

[RiverRat1]

No way we are going to 14-15K. We are at bottom now. There will continue to be volatility but we are not nose diving from here.

I called 14-15k when the markets were hitting all time highs in late Jan. My reason was simple. Seems like most runs dip to previous runs highs.
Dow went 3k-7k dipped then ran to 14k..The next crash it touched 7k then blew past 14k to 29.5k... So based on nothing more than pattern it would dip to 14k ish again.

But I want to be optimistic and say we already hit bottom
Not sure why futures are up so much right now.. COVID peak?

just 41 years as a financial planner with a securities license - over four decades of seeing every kind of market and situation you can imagine. Working first hand with hundreds of successful clients. Your background and why folks should deem you relevant?

So please explain why you think it will go down further.

Market has not priced in more negative news or what?

IMO it's ok to guess with a theory sort of like what I did in post 4. But to just say "we're going 30% lower" without anything at all??

[JeffJ]

41 years in the biz...that first post sure seemed a lot like advice...

[eradicator]

OPEC meetings this week will be a big determining factor IMO

[texasdeerhunter]

If we open the economy up by May1, we have likely seen the bottom of the stock market. If the government keeps the economy shut down until June 1 at the earliest, we are going to see a massive depression. It will make 2008 look like a cakewalk. Massive bank failures and a collapse of the financial system caused by large amounts of loans that can’t be paid back by the 50+ million people out of work. The government won’t be able to print enough money to keep the economy “afloat”’. Then you have the possibility of massive social unrest and an uprising against the government. We can not afford to keep the nation on lock down until June

[warrington]

There is not a vaccine made. That’s the only thing to stop it

This will last till June my guess