tropical outlook

[TexasBob]

https://spacecityweather.com/tropical-system-may-bring-heavy-rain-to-texas-next-week/

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[ccbluewater]

https://spacecityweather.com/tropica...xas-next-week/

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I am hoping for a big, sloppy rain maker for us next week! We need the rain, but as is typical with these; it can be feast or famine.

[TexasBob]

https://spacecityweather.com/sunday-update-on-tropical-disturbance-tracking-toward-texas/

I’m no forecaster, but I’ve never seen tropical and forecast combined in Houston to only be 1” of rain. Can we expect the usual southeast TX feast or famine tropical downpours?


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[panhandlehunter]

tropical outlook

https://spacecityweather.com/sunday-...-toward-texas/

I’m no forecaster, but I’ve never seen tropical and forecast combined in Houston to only be 1” of rain. Can we expect the usual southeast TX feast or famine tropical downpours?


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Fingers crossed for famine. I can live with an inch. I’m right in that red area.

[TexasBob]

No one here seems interested but... forecast this morning is looking heavier for the Houston area.

https://spacecityweather.com/heavy-rainfall-coming-to-the-houston-region-this-week/

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[RMW]

No one here seems interested but... forecast this morning is looking heavier for the Houston area.

https://spacecityweather.com/heavy-rainfall-coming-to-the-houston-region-this-week/

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Been watching this thing the last few days, Im in the red area also and would love to get about 1-2 inches everyday the next 4 days, it’s dry as heck around here.

[antonlsu]

You could say the Euro model is projecting just a little bit of rain...

Yikes.

[TexasBob]

You could say the Euro model is projecting just a little bit of rain...



Yikes.

Just a bit. Saw that on storm2k. Nuts. I’m not well enough versed in models to comment but anxiously awaiting ccbluewater or Johnny to weigh in


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[ccbluewater]

Models definitely have gotten more aggressive over yesterday & last night. First the Canadian & ICON were showing some impressive rain fall totals, then the Euro jumped on board yesterday, and especially overnight. The GFS had been consistently not jumping on board, until overnight where it now it now is also starting to follow suit in showing some higher rain totals. Additionally, some models are spinning this up into a depression, or possibly even a Tropical Storm before fully coming ashore. Models really slam on the breaks once this all starts to hit the coast, and a lot of the higher totals are later in the week with Wednesday & Thursday being when the most impact is made. Problem with set ups like this, is these models are showing the potential for some very high rain totals, but knowing exactly where these amounts will be isn't known.

As you can see, lots of juice out there..

[ccbluewater]

Added the Weather Prediction Center 5 Day QPF. This is a lot more reliable(but also more conservative) in my opinion than taking individual model predictions.

[SoTXAg06]

Wouldn’t be mad if some of that rain fell on Lavaca co. It’s getting real dry at our family place there.


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[antonlsu]

Wouldn’t be mad if some of that rain fell on Lavaca co. It’s getting real dry at our family place there.


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Just dont want to deal with the skeeters on opening weekend

[flyinstroke]

Been watching this thing the last few days, Im in the red area also and would love to get about 1-2 inches everyday the next 4 days, it’s dry as heck around here.

Same boat. But what are the odds we actually get what we need? I have a feeling its going to be more than we want. Its about that time of year to get a **** floater

[panhandlehunter]

Same boat. But what are the odds we actually get what we need? I have a feeling its going to be more than we want. Its about that time of year to get a **** floater

That's how I feel. I'd rather it not rain at all than flood.

[SaltwaterSlick]

It needs to go a bit further West!!