I aint buying the media hype but every time we get hit with something it starts out with "it aint gonna sniff the gulf". Best to just have a box of canned food, maintenance on the generator and some fresh water on hand this time of year.
Flooded tax day 36 inches in the house. Rebuilt and just got through when Harvey hit us like a freight train. 63 inches in the house. The perfect definition of insanity is doing the same thing expecting a different result. We cut the house off of the slab, moved it uphill to pier and beam that I built. We are 99 inches higher than before. So bring it. We have spent near a year this time busting our butts. I ain't scared no more. Hurricane smurricane!
I've been fishing this past weekend, and only slightly looking at this until last night, but i still can't believe Channel 2 rolled that headline out about Fathers Day Hurricane in Houston. Unbelievably irresponsible..
A few things to note, a whole lot of convection down there right now. GFS did somewhat drop its solution overnight(completely during 0Z run, and weak during 6Z run), and cave towards the Euro(shows more ridging & keeps the "system" over a lot more land). However, there is something to watch down there, and it will hopefully bring us some good rains this weekend/early next week, and not much else. Main inhibitor to development in my opinion is a whole lot of land interaction as it tracks WNW.
Here is the Morning Update from Jeff Lindner from HCFCD for a little more info.
Main focus for much of this week will be the late week/weekend forecast as a strong tropical wave moves into the W/NW Gulf of Mexico.
Not expecting much day to day variation of the forecast from a 10-20% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the sezbreeze front through Thursday.
Friday-Monday:
A tropical wave currently moving through the Caribbean Sea will interact with an eastward extension of the central American monsoon trough that has currently drifted northward over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity has increased in this region of the Caribbean Sea overnight, but at this time there does not appear to be any low level circulation. This feature will meander WNW and into the W Caribbean Sea and central America over the next few days and then likely emerge into the southern or central Gulf of Mexico late this week. At this time a majority of the global computer model guidance maintains this feature as a broad tropical wave axis and moves into toward the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
As the tropical wave axis moves into the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday a large mass of deep tropical moisture will surge NW on the eastern flank of the wave toward the TX coast. Rain chances will likely begin to increase early Saturday and continue elevated through the weekend into early next week. Wind and seas will also increase as the unsettled weather and wave axis moves toward the coastline.
Regardless of development or not…rain chances will be increasing this weekend. Will start to have a better idea toward the middle of the week on expected amounts of rainfall over the area as forecast models resolve how this feature will unfold over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico, but a prolonged period of wet to very wet weather looks possible.
I wouldn't write this one off just yet...lots of moisture in the Caribbean with signs of mid level rotation which will get into the central/southern gulf later this week. This could turn into a pretty healthy rain maker for the Texas coast.
I wouldn't write this one off just yet...lots of moisture in the Caribbean with signs of mid level rotation which will get into the central/southern gulf later this week. This could turn into a pretty healthy rain maker for the Texas coast.
I got a bay home rented out starting the 17th rigged up with overhead lights. I was looking forward to killing the trout but if a **** floater still looks possible along the coast over the next couple of days, I'm cancelling so watching this one very closely.
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