Originally posted by TexasBob
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Reckon This One Will Sniff The Gulf?
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Im sticking with the Euro model, no reason i can see that it is wrong. I still say a more westward shift is coming which will put it landfalling somewhere near Matagorda. The ridge buckled, the Euro picked up on that several days ago. Either way, be prepared.
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Originally posted by Bonesplitter View PostIm sticking with the Euro model, no reason i can see that it is wrong. I still say a more westward shift is coming which will put it landfalling somewhere near Matagorda. The ridge buckled, the Euro picked up on that several days ago. Either way, be prepared.
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Originally posted by Man View PostWow! I almost just clicked off the thread when I saw the landfall on the Ms/La line. I scroll a little further down and now Im in the eye!
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Latest update
Originally posted by NHCPotential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.
The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.
The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Assuming a landfall west of Gtown what can be expected in terms of impact. I know we won't have big winds but can we predict a tidal surge of some sort. I have a Bay home on the Westend of the island and I am out of town not back to till Thursday night. I can have people get down there and tie off the boat and move all patio furniture inside but I am not prepared for 4 foot surge that flood the garage.
Is this a possibility?
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..and we now have Tropical Storm Cindy. Have been noticing that it didnt appear to be moving this morning, and they note that it is Stationary. Could possibly have a window upcoming to strengthen if it can tuck under the area of lower shear from the Upper Level Low that is retreating to the SW.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2
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Originally posted by Raleigh View PostAssuming a landfall west of Gtown what can be expected in terms of impact. I know we won't have big winds but can we predict a tidal surge of some sort. I have a Bay home on the Westend of the island and I am out of town not back to till Thursday night. I can have people get down there and tie off the boat and move all patio furniture inside but I am not prepared for 4 foot surge that flood the garage.
Is this a possibility?
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