Does anybody follow Phil Robertson/ Eyestorm Weather on Facebook? he seems to think we are about to get some brutally cold weather. He is usually pretty good with his forecasts.
Wednesday Morning:
2 things:
1. Big changes in Winter Forecast.
I rarely make changes at this point, but at least I’m doing it before the start of Meteorological Winter, which begins tomorrow.
A. My original forecast, which I first put out in July, and finalized in early October, called for:
-Normal Winter temps in the SP.
-Wild swings in temps, with prolonged warm spells, and possible extreme cold temps to counter the long warm spells.
-Normal Winter precip over areas north of Waco (the northern panhandles and northeastern OK were forecasted for above normal Winter precip)
-Below normal Winter precip for areas south of Waco.
B. I can no longer ignore the obvious (obvious to me).
-I’ve been saying for weeks now that the Pacific is eerily similar to what it was in late Fall of 1983. For the uninitiated, December of 1983 was the most bitter, cold month I’ve ever seen in the SP. December of 1989 was a close second. DFW was below freezing for 10 straight days; ice formed in the Gulf; and inland lakes froze. I clearly remember a massive waterfowl die-off (several thousand ducks and geese) at Lake Proctor due to the peanut crop in the area getting so cold, toxins built up in the shells, which killed all the waterfowl that ate them.
-The Atlantic is different right now than it was in the Winter of 1983/84. The Atlantic typically wields its power over the SP from late January to March, in conjunction with the Pacific. The Atlantic in 1983/84 was such that it was not very favorable for cold outbreaks in the SP for late Winter.
-The Atlantic this year has more of a look for helping low-level cold outbreaks into the SP for mid-late Winter.
-The Pacific rules the roost in late Fall and early-mid Winter in the SP. It maintains influence while the Atlantic begins making its mark from mid-Winter, on.
C. The La Nina never really got up to speed…..which I forecasted back over the Summer was a possibility…..and we are now going towards just a cool side of normal (cool La Nada). This spells more precip chances for the SP as we head towards mid-late Winter.
D. *****With all of this in mind, I have no choice but to change my Winter Forecast to one of colder than normal temps for pretty much all of the SP, with far west TX being more normal. The further east one goes in the SP, particularly east of a Wichita Falls to Abilene line, the colder than normal the temps will be.
-My concern is the Pacific rules early to mid-Winter on possible extreme cold outbreaks (probable at this point, lol), while the Atlantic starts aiding that mid-late Winter.
***In other words, I believe we run the real possibility of 2013-14 all over again, when cold ruled for the entire Winter, with little letup, other than for the cold reloading over the Arctic. That is a real possibility for this Winter, given the conditions.
-I’m also changing my Winter precip forecast to one of above normal for areas north of Austin. With the La Nina fading, storm systems will have a better chance to get going here in the South, whereas before, I was concerned there would be only small chances at storm systems influencing the SP. This will mainly have influence mid-late Winter, when I don’t think we’ll be quite as cold as early Winter (still cold), but should have better Winter storm chances.
I feel pretty confident about these changes, even though I’m an outlier with most other seasonal forecasters.
2. ********I am very concerned that we are about to experience BRUTAL, EXTREME COLD for the SP beginning next week. You really need to take this very seriously.
I will have an update later today.
Wednesday Morning:
2 things:
1. Big changes in Winter Forecast.
I rarely make changes at this point, but at least I’m doing it before the start of Meteorological Winter, which begins tomorrow.
A. My original forecast, which I first put out in July, and finalized in early October, called for:
-Normal Winter temps in the SP.
-Wild swings in temps, with prolonged warm spells, and possible extreme cold temps to counter the long warm spells.
-Normal Winter precip over areas north of Waco (the northern panhandles and northeastern OK were forecasted for above normal Winter precip)
-Below normal Winter precip for areas south of Waco.
B. I can no longer ignore the obvious (obvious to me).
-I’ve been saying for weeks now that the Pacific is eerily similar to what it was in late Fall of 1983. For the uninitiated, December of 1983 was the most bitter, cold month I’ve ever seen in the SP. December of 1989 was a close second. DFW was below freezing for 10 straight days; ice formed in the Gulf; and inland lakes froze. I clearly remember a massive waterfowl die-off (several thousand ducks and geese) at Lake Proctor due to the peanut crop in the area getting so cold, toxins built up in the shells, which killed all the waterfowl that ate them.
-The Atlantic is different right now than it was in the Winter of 1983/84. The Atlantic typically wields its power over the SP from late January to March, in conjunction with the Pacific. The Atlantic in 1983/84 was such that it was not very favorable for cold outbreaks in the SP for late Winter.
-The Atlantic this year has more of a look for helping low-level cold outbreaks into the SP for mid-late Winter.
-The Pacific rules the roost in late Fall and early-mid Winter in the SP. It maintains influence while the Atlantic begins making its mark from mid-Winter, on.
C. The La Nina never really got up to speed…..which I forecasted back over the Summer was a possibility…..and we are now going towards just a cool side of normal (cool La Nada). This spells more precip chances for the SP as we head towards mid-late Winter.
D. *****With all of this in mind, I have no choice but to change my Winter Forecast to one of colder than normal temps for pretty much all of the SP, with far west TX being more normal. The further east one goes in the SP, particularly east of a Wichita Falls to Abilene line, the colder than normal the temps will be.
-My concern is the Pacific rules early to mid-Winter on possible extreme cold outbreaks (probable at this point, lol), while the Atlantic starts aiding that mid-late Winter.
***In other words, I believe we run the real possibility of 2013-14 all over again, when cold ruled for the entire Winter, with little letup, other than for the cold reloading over the Arctic. That is a real possibility for this Winter, given the conditions.
-I’m also changing my Winter precip forecast to one of above normal for areas north of Austin. With the La Nina fading, storm systems will have a better chance to get going here in the South, whereas before, I was concerned there would be only small chances at storm systems influencing the SP. This will mainly have influence mid-late Winter, when I don’t think we’ll be quite as cold as early Winter (still cold), but should have better Winter storm chances.
I feel pretty confident about these changes, even though I’m an outlier with most other seasonal forecasters.
2. ********I am very concerned that we are about to experience BRUTAL, EXTREME COLD for the SP beginning next week. You really need to take this very seriously.
I will have an update later today.
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