It's the Brazos's Turn

[TX_Phil]

Didn't notice that the damage that bad. Looking at the guardrail in the second picture and you can get some idea of the weight \ force of that tree falling. Guardrails are not all that each to crush.

[Neck]

288 at 610 about to be impassable.


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[Harry]

My mom's house is off of I-10 and Peachridge Rd. took in 5.5 feet, Trailer is 3ft off of ground needless to say its a goner

[TexasTK]

Wow, I was wondering how bad it was in there. Sorry for her misfortune.
A little bit of positive news, the water is dropping pretty quick now in Simonton.

[Texas Grown]

It will not take a couple of weeks to reside. It can go back down as quick as it came up if we can just catch a break.

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That could be true. But in this case not. Catching a break is what I'm talking about. It will take a few weeks fo catching a break to get caught up. Next week is looking good weather wise. But if you look at the whole of the Brazos valley basin all the way up to the Texas panhandle like I do, and current river(s), creek(s), and run-off gauges, lake levels, ect., you'll understand where I'm coming from. Watching this river, and it's hydrolysis over time, has been a hobby of mine.

For those concerned: The data below is from the Army Corps of Engineer's Ft. Worth District web sight. The comments that are along with the numbers data below, are mine, so you get a little better picture of what is happening in the river basin.

http://www.swf-wc.usace.army.mil/cgi-bin/rcshtml.pl

Lake Possum Kingdom is releasing 19,600 CFPS (Cubic Feet Per Second). This is necessary for the lake to sit at near normal level. Just shows how much influx they have in the region. PK sits above Lake Grandbury on the Brazos River.

Lake Grandbury releasing 51,200 CFPS and has almost zero flood plan compared to many other lakes. Anytime PK (above) releases, Grandbury almost has to release to keep the communities around the lake from flooding. They got a LOT of rain the past few days. Governor Abbot visited the county today to view the flooding disaster that is happening there around the lake, above it, and below it. This will eventually run off into Lake Whiteny.

Lake Whitney's current elevation is +15.77 feet above normal. And expecting a top surge of +27 feet. Currently releasing 1,442 CFPS. I've seen this lake at the expected elevation a few times in my life now. It's unbelievable!

Lake Waco's current elevation is +16.20 and releasing 859 CFPS. That will change very soon.

Lake Proctor is currently at +31.27 feet above normal at 1193.27, about 4 feet below the normal flood pool elevation (max). Release is 3,128 CFPS. That will change soon. Proctor is above Lake Waco.

Sumerville has bumped it's release up to 5,401 CFPS. But current elevations is at +21.20 feet above normal. That's 1.2 feet above the normal flood pool.

Belton, Stillhouse, Granger, and Georgetown are holding steady and not releasing. And still have some capacity.

Here are a couple more interesting links. They greatly depend on ACE and a few other gov agencies. Some of the data is not as fresh or current as what ACE provides in "real time".

http://www.brazos.org/

http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

[TX_Phil]

So what is this, 6 - 7 lakes releasing into the Brazos? Yep, it's going to take some time for this river to get below flood stage. Finally the reporting station at hwy 90 is showing the flow rate below 100 CFS and while the level is still above 54' it is heading down. Slowly but still down none the less.

[Texas Grown]

Right now, the lakes that are going to make the biggest difference are holding back as long as they can.

Whitney is +20.78 feet above normal at the moment. And still has some room. But I bet they will start releasing once it gets up around +23-25 feet so the rest of the lake can take the shock of the upstream surge. And still try to save some down stream shock too. I'd be really surprised if they let it go any higher. On large lakes, the upper stream bed is where the surge starts on a lake. Then it is like a river surge. And moves down to the release spot/gates/dam or what ever. When the lower lake gets the surge, the upper lake is usually beginning to reside some, just like a smaller surge in a river going through a town. But with a current as we have on this big lake, it will create drag under the water where there is a current in the river channel. You may not see it on top, but 50-100 feet below, it is moving and taking stuff with it. Being that Lake Grandbury (currently releasing 43,150 CFPS) has been releasing water for as long as it has now, the mass of water moving down the river system is a long one. And will take time to reside, if we don't get any more rain. Once Whtiney reaches capacity, the dams open to help absorb the shock of inflow. And the more the inflow, the more the gates will open sending the water on down river.
Whitney has over 27 miles of river channel between two rivers that feed it. The Brazos river and the Nolan river that dumps into the Brazos on the upper end. Add in all the miles up to Lake Grandbury, and you can see how this wall of water is going to be up for a while.

The same is true with Lake Waco. But is a much smaller lake. It's at +19.66 above normal at the moment. Has two small rivers that feed it. And it dumps right into the Brazos at Waco, Texas.

Belton, Stillhouse, Granger, and Georgetown have come up a good bit since last night. But still have some good capacity before "Normal Elevation at Flood Pool" if any more water comes down to them.

Eventually they ^^^ all will have to bring their water levels back down so they can catch the next big run-off should there be one. This is why I say it's gonna take a while for the water levels to subside. And there may be several surges. The following surges won't be as big as the one down south now (unless there is a lot more rain). They have to release the water from these lakes as soon as feasible so as to act as a barrier should there be another big run-off. Lets hope for no rain for a little while so all the folks affected can get their lives back together.