Originally posted by ATXBowhunter
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Hey Oilfield Guys!!
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All the China hysteria is overblown. The main problem is the Saudis have increased their production as prices have fallen. They're trying to put US shale producers out of business, and they're also trying to starve Iran of oil money. They're playing a trillion dollar game of chicken. They have deep pockets, but they're also a one-trick pony with oil only. We'll see how long they can hurt themselves while they're trying to hurt everybody else.
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Originally posted by BrianL View PostLast time it was about 20 years. I think the China deal is much bigger than people think. They have over built way more than most would believe.
Google China ghost cities.
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Any thoughts on NG prices going up when these liquefying plants go online & we start exporting in bulk??
Lots of chatter of the Brownsville / CC-Bay City & La ports getting ramped up for this...also a new 42"+/- line going into Mex through deep south tx has a some talk of being able to move product.
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Originally posted by JTeLarkin08 View PostI've decided no one has a clue what is going to happen. The Saudis may decide tomorrow they are tired of losing money or they may keep this going until they go broke.
Bingo!
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Crude oil had rallied nearly 6% earlier Wednesday morning after dipping below $30 per barrel Tuesday. But a report by the Energy Information Administration released at 10:30 a.m. indicated supplies had increased over the past week, and all the price gains were erased in minutes. The current bear market in crude oil, which is the longest since the 1970s, is having ripple effects throughout all markets, including U.S. stocks.
Nope, oil has no affect on the economy LOL
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Originally posted by BrianL View PostLast time it was about 20 years. I think the China deal is much bigger than people think. They have over built way more than most would believe.
Google China ghost cities.
In the late 80s when Japan started to have major trouble, everybody thought that was going to bring the whole world down. It didn't. Our economy boomed in the '90s while Japan has been in the toilet for decades. Japan was where lots of cheap things were being made back then. Today it's China. Tomorrow it will be somewhere else. We'll still be OK. China will not go completely out of business, but they will continue slow down. They can't keep up their fake economy by building empty cities, obviously. But they'll still use oil, and they'll still be building cheap stuff that other countries will buy. They'll have competition from other emerging market nations as well.
The oil markets will eventually rebound to a healthy level. When? Who knows? But China's slowdown isn't going to bring the global economy crashing down the way some people are saying. Mostly, they are just the current place to go for cheap labor and knockoff products. That's not a big position of strength or importance. The nations where real innovations happen have always been the strongest economies, and that will continue to be the case. There will always be ups and downs, even in the strongest economies, too. No way around the economic cycle.
The Saudis are the main problem with the oil market right now. It won't get any better until they're trillion dollar game of chicken ends with either them or the US blinking by cutting production significantly enough to dry up the supply glut. World demand is still very strong. China is slowly down some, but other emerging market nations are growing some. Ebbs and flows.... We just need the Saudis to slow down production. They've increased production as oil prices have dropped though. Bad for everybody, including themselves. But Muslims seem to like suicide bombers, I guess. Crazy.
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Originally posted by Shane View PostYes, but they are an exporter. They import VERY little. In other words, they don't buy much from us, so they don't contribute much to our economy. In fact, China contributes just 0.7% to the US GDP (our economy). If China went completely out of business, our economy would still be growing.
In the late 80s when Japan started to have major trouble, everybody thought that was going to bring the whole world down. It didn't. Our economy boomed in the '90s while Japan has been in the toilet for decades. Japan was where lots of cheap things were being made back then. Today it's China. Tomorrow it will be somewhere else. We'll still be OK. China will not go completely out of business, but they will continue slow down. They can't keep up their fake economy by building empty cities, obviously. But they'll still use oil, and they'll still be building cheap stuff that other countries will buy. They'll have competition from other emerging market nations as well.
The oil markets will eventually rebound to a healthy level. When? Who knows? But China's slowdown isn't going to bring the global economy crashing down the way some people are saying. Mostly, they are just the current place to go for cheap labor and knockoff products. That's not a big position of strength or importance. The nations where real innovations happen have always been the strongest economies, and that will continue to be the case. There will always be ups and downs, even in the strongest economies, too. No way around the economic cycle.
The Saudis are the main problem with the oil market right now. It won't get any better until they're trillion dollar game of chicken ends with either them or the US blinking by cutting production significantly enough to dry up the supply glut. World demand is still very strong. China is slowly down some, but other emerging market nations are growing some. Ebbs and flows.... We just need the Saudis to slow down production. They've increased production as oil prices have dropped though. Bad for everybody, including themselves. But Muslims seem to like suicide bombers, I guess. Crazy.
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Originally posted by BrianL View PostI was talking about China as the second largest consumer of crude. Their slowdown will only further the supply, assuming they don't cut their own production, and increase imports.
I sure hope the Saudis blink soon.
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Originally posted by John Paul View PostWell this is some headlines I ready this morning,
"Oil to Hit 70bbl by second quarter 2016"
"Oil is on the slide, 10bbl possible within weeks"
"80 WTI by first quarter 2017"
"2017 Oil will rebound to a break level of 45bbl"
Seriously, its almost comical now to read some of this stuff.
Anyone who claims they know is full of it
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