It’s getting to be that time again, solar flares

[Playa]

Well, sun spot 3780 is a new sun spot that is turning towards earth. While on the backside of the sun, I believe this is the sun spot that sent out a very strong X14 solar flare!! Today it sent out an X1.1 flare, so it is still very active, and still very large. So, it warrants keeping a close eye on it over a little over the next week as it transits the earth facing side of the sun.

For comparison do we know what X factor the carrington event was in 1859?

[dosrobles]

Wife and I are headed up to Manitoba to see the northern lights on Friday

[GARY]

Interesting stuff and thanks for sharing!

[91cavgt]

For comparison do we know what X factor the carrington event was in 1859?

I’ve seen estimates that range from X25 to X50. Keep in mind that was for a single solar flare. Multiple smaller solar flares can have the same effect by first disturbing the magnetic field around earth that protects us first, thus allowing another solar flare to then have a stronger effect on our planet. This is what happened a couple of months ago. Multiple strong M class and moderate X class flares hit in quick succession causing a MUCH larger problem than if just one were to hit.

[91cavgt]

Well, there was just an X1.3 flare that was aimed squarely at us, but it came from sun spot 3777, not 3780! There are now 3 sun spots that are capable of X class solar flares. It will take a few more hours to see if the latest X1.3 sent a CME towards us or not.

[Man]

I have had no impact to my life so far from any of these? Do i need to be the ant or grasshopper?

[91cavgt]

I have had no impact to my life so far from any of these? Do i need to be the ant or grasshopper?

In 1859, a solar flare hit earth. Telegraph operators reported problems so they disconnected the batteries, and were still able to send messages. Other telegraph offices caught on fire due to electrical arching that took place. This is known as the Carrington Event.

In May of 1921 a solar flare hit earth that caused the northern lights to occur farther south than any other time. Telephone offices were knocked out. Fuses were popped. Fires broke out on towers. It knocked all communications out.

In March of 1941, a solar flare hit earth that caused significant communications problems for the entire country.

In August of 1972 a solar flare hit earth that caused severe technological disruptions. It was so strong that it set off numerous magnetic sea mines!

In March of 1989 a solar flare hit earth that knocked out electricity for all of the province of Quebec and caused some power outages and electricity delivery problems here in the USA.


These listed events are only the events that hit earth that did or would have knocked out our power today for hours over a small area to years over the entire USA. These are not theoretical events that could happen. They did happen. Our modern lives have gotten soft due to modern conveniences. All while our grid in the past 30 years has become much more delicate. So does that mean you need to panic? Absolutely not. Just like living on the coast, you must expect the inevitable hurricane to hit, so you always are prepared for one. Most people are ignorant to the effects of a strong solar event, so when they first hear about them they classify it in the “I’ve never been effected by one so that must mean I never will.” But history proves that is a false sense of security. We came close to seeing power outages in May. We dodged a bullet. If history is an indicator of our future then we will be hit by a solar flare again that will take out our power. The only thing we don’t know is how long that power will be out for. It is up to each individual person to take responsibility for themselves and make a decision as to what action to take. It is my job to inform others, and that is what I am doing.

[91cavgt]

Another X-1 class solar flare just occurred. I don’t have any details on it yet but will post when those details come out.

[91cavgt]

The X1 flare did send a CME towards us, but it is a minor one with no large effects expected.

[91cavgt]

Sun spot 3825 sent out an X4.5 flare yesterday. This is a new sun spot that is not aimed at us yet, so the CME is supposed to give earth a glancing blow which is a good thing. With that being said, this was a strong CME so a moderate storm is expected with northern lights expected to be seen on Monday as far south as Colorado.

[91cavgt]

Sun spot 3842 let out a strong X7.1 solar flare yesterday. This is the second strongest flare of this solar cycle(solar cycles are 11 years). Preliminary data shows a CME was sent out and should arrive on about October 5th. I’ll post more info as it becomes available.

[91cavgt]

A G3 geomagnetic storm watch is currently underway for the next 48-72 hours. Geomagnetic storms fall into a classification from G1 being the weakest to G5 being the strongest. A G3 storms means we might see the northern lights into the northern parts of Texas. Now, just like thunderstorm and tornado watches, the geomagnetic storm watch does not mean a storm will happen, just that the signs point strongly to that possibility.

Personally, I don’t think it is going to be very strong due to the short duration of the solar flare. But, I’m not an astronomer so I could be completely wrong.

[muddydog]

Interesting info. I've always believed something along these lines could happen and cause mass destruction to our power grid and water, which affects everything. The weather is crazy and the earth seems angry! Probably time for it to do a reset! I still ain't going to worry about something I can't change though

[100%TtId]

Are we in the beginning, middle, or end of the current solar cycle?

[91cavgt]

Are we in the beginning, middle, or end of the current solar cycle?

We are about 2/3 to 3/4 through this cycle. We’ve got about another year of strong activity to go before it starts calming down.